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31.01.2014
What’s behind recent trends in Asian corporate bond markets?
Abstract: Corporate bond markets in Asia have expanded rapidly. Since the global financial crisis, Asian corporates have made increasing use of bond issuance for their funding needs, complementing traditional channels such as bank lending. While the bond markets of Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea are comparatively advanced and liquid, markets in China, India, Indonesia and Thailand are still at an early stage of development. Considerable variation exists in terms of bond issuances' structural characteristics by sector, currency, issuing volume and the use of funds. Fast growth in bond markets has provided an effective source of financing for the corporate sector, but its development is far from complete.
Topics: Asia; Banking; Capital markets; Capital markets policy; Emerging markets; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; Globalisation; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends; Risk / Country Risk
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23.12.2013
CEE: Gradual deleveraging still ongoing
Topics: Banking; Eastern Europe; Emerging markets; Global financial markets; International financial system; Risk / Country Risk
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19.12.2013
The global economy in 2014 – Heading towards trend growth
Abstract: Seven years after the onset of the global economic and financial crisis the global economy should start to post trend growth of 3 ½% to 4% again in 2014. Following several years in which hopes of an economic upturn have been dashed the interplay of five drivers may finally effect a turnaround for the eurozone economy. The growth is, however, likely to end up being a very modest 1% following a contraction of 0.4% in the current year on account of the deleveraging that still has to occur in the private sector and over the medium term also in the public sector
Topics: Emerging markets; EMU; Global financial markets; International financial system; Macroeconomics
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16.12.2013
European banking sector: Finally heading for better times?
Abstract: Following years of struggle and having seen their world turned upside down, European banks may finally be heading for a (somewhat) smoother ride in 2014. Profitability is returning, though so far this is mainly driven by lower extraordinary charges rather than improvements in revenues and costs. Pressure to build capital may lessen thanks to significant progress over the past two years, yet currently banks are still shrinking relentlessly. Much will also depend on regulatory and supervisory actions, especially on how the EU Banking Union is implemented.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!
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26.09.2013
Bank performance in the US and Europe: An ocean apart
Abstract: Five years after the global financial crisis hit both the US and Europe, banks across the Atlantic are in very different shapes. US banks have returned to record profit levels, while their European peers are struggling to stay above the zero line at all. The differences are mainly driven by diverging trends in revenues, corporate lending growth and loan loss provisions all of which have developed much more favourably in America than in Europe. This may have been caused largely by three underlying factors: i) the better macroeconomic performance of the US, ii) European banks' less aggressive dealing with problematic legacy assets and their greater need to deleverage and shrink, and iii) differences in the institutional setup - in Europe at times triggering doubts over the very survival of the Monetary Union, in the US allowing the Fed to massively intervene in financial markets. As the US economic recovery gains strength and Europe emerges from the debt crisis and recession, banks face improvements on an operating level, with EU financial institutions likely to narrow but not close the gap to their US competitors.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Supervision and regulation
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07.08.2013
Reforming OTC derivatives markets: Observable changes and open issues
Abstract: Derivatives markets form a major part of the regulatory reform agenda. While corner-stones of the reforms have been defined, some crucial issues such as the exact definition of standardised derivative contracts, the treatment of cross-border trades and CCP access to central bank liquidity are yet to be clarified. The decrease in volumes in derivatives markets can largely be explained by trade compression. Even though there is a notable shift from dealer to CCP trades for interest rate derivatives and a less remarkable shift for the credit derivatives, the actual capacity of the clearing market is much higher. Regulatory pressure to encourage standardisation seems to have created little impetus for greater standardisation to date and the use of exchange platforms seems to remain subdued. Even though collateral practices would become more expensive for all market participants, non-financial corporations as counterparties are more likely to be affected by collateralisation obligations in the future. A few CCPs dominate the market suggesting concentration issues.
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Payments and market infrastructures; Supervision and regulation
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15.07.2013
Private equity: In times of monetary normalisation
Abstract: The announcement of Fed tapering has boosted financial market volatility and high-yield spreads. This is an important development for private equity because debt markets are a major driver. However, historical patterns suggest that this spike may be a temporary phenomenon during which markets are weaned off the liquidity glut. Over the medium term, monetary normalisation should be associated with stronger risk assets and better prospects for private equity. This is not because private equiteers would cheer a cut in liquidity supply. Instead they would cheer the underlying economic improvement that would allow cutting liquidity in the first place.
Topics: Capital markets; Capital markets policy; Economic policy; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Real econ. trends
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12.07.2013
High-yield bonds in times of monetary normalisation: Less speed, more grip
Abstract: The recent Fed announcement may have marked the beginning of the end of monetary expansion in the US. This note revisits previous research to distil some implications for high-yield corporate bonds. It argues that monetary normalisation should be associated with a moderating effect on issuance volumes, but also with a more investment-oriented usage of the money raised.
Topics: Banking; Capital markets; Capital markets policy; Econometrics; Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic trends; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Quantitative analysis; Real econ. trends
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11.06.2013
Corporate funding in Europe: Bonds replacing loans?
Topics: Banking; Economic policy; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!
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10.06.2013
Ultra-low interest rates: How Japanese banks have coped
Abstract: This study reviews how Japanese banks have responded to the adverse macroeconomic environment during the past ten to twenty years. The experience of Japanese banks provides some valuable insights into the effect of a prolonged phase of low interest rates on bank balance sheets and profitability. Banks have adapted both the cost and income drivers of their business. Profitability and efficiency gains have been limited though. While Japanese banks have reduced their bad loan problem, they have also become increasingly exposed to their home sovereign.
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Monetary policy
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