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China – Not really a white knight for the eurozone
Abstract: Recent media reports put a lot of emphasis on the role China could play in assisting to resolve the eurozone debt crisis. In our view, however, hopes pinned on China might be overdone. The amount needed when looking at estimated refinancing needs for 2012 is huge, amounting to EUR 730 bn for the GIIPS countries. Even if China were willing to increase its investments in euro assets a realistic number would be around EUR 150 bn for 2012. Risk aversion coupled with potentially hostile domestic public opinion make substantially increased – and unconditional – Chinese investment in the eurozone unlikely in the near term.
Topics: Asia; Emerging markets; EMU; Global financial markets
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'I'm an Austrian in economics'
Abstract: Modern macro- and financial economics are based on the belief that economic agents always hold rational expectations and that markets are always efficient, in other words, that the earth is flat. We now find out that this is not true. There are elements of irrationality and inefficiencies in the behavior of people and markets. Therefore we need to dump the flat-earth theories promising that economic and financial outcomes can be planned with a high degree of certainty and need to look at other theories that accept the limits of our knowledge about the future. A revival of Austrian economics could be a good start for such a research programme.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Capital markets policy; Economic growth; Economic policy; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation
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CMBS: Refinancing risks have not become smaller
Abstract: One of the factors cited as having triggered the economic crisis is the housing market bubbles in the United States and Europe. However, one factor frequently overlooked is that many commercial real estate markets had also shown signs of overheating before the crisis: the office and retail property markets had witnessed a largely debt-financed investment boom up to 2007 – similar to the housing markets. The trend is now about to boomerang, for numerous portfolios are currently up for refinancing. It is not going to be an easy job – neither in Europe nor in the US.
Topics: Capital markets; Commercial real estate; Global financial markets; International financial system; Supervision and regulation
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Emerging markets banks: Strong growth potential
Abstract: Emerging market economies are not only gaining in importance in the real economy, but the strong economic catch-up is mirrored in the banking sector. The fact that nine of the world’s 30 largest banks by market capitalisation are located in EMs highlights the shifting balance in global banking markets. Our simple forecast model shows that over the next five years private sector credit is expected to expand by 12% per year on average (in nominal terms), with Russia, Korea, Argentina, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, India, the Czech Republic, Romania, Taiwan and Saudi Arabia expanding at an above-average speed.
Topics: Africa; Asia; Banking; Capital markets; Eastern Europe; Economic growth; Emerging markets; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; LatAm; Macroeconomics; Middle East
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Stabilising PMI in China?
Topics: Asia; Business cycle; Emerging markets; Global financial markets; Macroeconomics
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Slower growth in China: How much of a drag on the global economy?
Abstract: China’s expected growth slowdown - from 10.3% yoy in 2010 to 8,9% this year and 8.3% in 2012 - will impact the global economy in a number of ways: Chinese demand for G3 exports will likely slow to an average of 15% in 2011 and to 7% in 2012. Adding indirect effects like slowing investment, rising unemployment and weaker consumption suggest that Japan and Germany would be hit harder than the US. Furthermore, growth in commodity prices would slow to 6-8% in 2011-12. Reduced inflationary pressures in both DM and EM economies would be a clear benefit, but global stock markets would be vulnerable to lower Chinese growth given that commodity-linked companies account for 20% of the MSCI-World index and around one third of the index is accounted for by companies which derive substantial revenues from China.
Topics: Asia; Economic growth; Emerging markets; Exchange rates; Global financial markets; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities
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Australian Carbon Scheme
Abstract: Australia is one of the biggest carbon emitters per person. However, releasing carbon into the atmosphere is free in Australia at the moment. Undoubtedly, putting a price on carbon emissions is thus the right thing to do. Australia is proposing a hybrid carbon price, starting with an interim fixed price before switching to an emissions trading scheme. Using a transitional carbon tax can be reasonable as a tax is easy to implement and might help liable entities to warm to the idea of a carbon price. However, transition to a more sophisticated and efficient trading scheme should be guaranteed.
Topics: Environmental protection; Global financial markets; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Natural resources; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability
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Bank funding of residential mortgages in the EU
Abstract: The development of bank funding before and during the crisis has highlighted its importance for financial intermediation and credit provision in an economy. Given its importance for banks and households, mortgage finance is of particular importance here, not least with an eye to financial stability issues. This paper provides an overview of banks’ funding of residential mortgages in Europe, taking a close look at the structure of funding instruments and their potential effects on financial stability.
Topics: Banking; Capital markets; Capital markets policy; Economic policy; European issues; European policy issues; Financial market trends; Global financial markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Real estate; Residential real estate
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Identifying systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs)
Abstract: As part of the search for an adequate response to systemic risk, policy makers seek to identify financial institutions whose going-concern is crucial for the smooth functioning of the financial system. Designated institutions are potential candidates for tighter supervision and additional loss absorbency requirements. While new policies are still under discussion, it is clear that the indicators and methodologies used to identify systemically important institutions will be key in promoting a more stable financial system. This study highlights the difference between the aim of identifying systemically important institutions and the benchmarking of those institutions for regulatory purposes. It argues that the methodologies currently under discussion do not adequately take into account the response of market participants to the proposed SIFI regime. In order to enhance systemic stability, global activity should be excluded from the benchmark framework and resolvability be established as a central theme in SIFI designation.
Topics: Banking; Global financial markets; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Supervision and regulation
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What can CDS spreads really tell us about sovereign default probabilities?
Abstract: Risk premia for bonds issued by strongly indebted industrial countries have risen sharply in recent months. In this context, DB Research presents an extended online application to extract CDS-implied default probabilities for 34 developed and emerging economies.
Topics: Capital markets; Contagion; Emerging markets; EMU; Financial market trends; Fiscal policy; Global financial markets; International capital markets; Risk / Country Risk; Risk models
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