210 (51-60)
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In this one-page Infographic we look at key questions, considerations and possible options following last week’s Brexit vote. The UK’s vote to leave the European Union opens a prolonged period of uncertainty. Quick answers about immediate next steps and the UK’s future status with the EU will be in short supply for at least several months. [more]
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This report is for Deutsche Bank clients only, not the broader voting public in the UK. Deutsche Bank does not intend to promote a particular outcome to the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. Readers who are eligible to vote in the UK referendum should vote as they personally see fit. The June 23rd UK referendum has been the dominant theme for markets, with shifts in opinion polls and betting odds leading to sharp swings in asset prices. Markets went from pricing very little to pricing about 50-50 odds as Leave gained momentum. The subsequent partial reversal in polls has led to some unwind of this risk premium. The outcome of the referendum remains too close to call. But regardless of the result, political uncertainty is unlikely to subside for some time. Spain goes to the polls a few days later; Italy, where the populist 5 Star Movement won Rome’s mayoral election, has an important referendum on Senate reform in October; and elections loom further out in the US in November and in France and Germany in 2017. This comes against a global growth backdrop that remains sluggish but overall little changed since the start of the year. Growth in Europe remains stable. In the US, recession fears have risen but growth should actually rise modestly. In China, we still see growth slowing only gradually, even if momentum is slower and risks have risen. Markets will take their near-term cues from the UK referendum. A material shock would trigger a forceful central bank response; absent a shock, attention should shift back to fundamentals. Monetary policy is unlikely to offer a strong boost to sentiment, but at the same time a dovish Fed is less likely to upset this state of affairs. David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist Key pages this month: P6: Brexit polling and timeline for resultsP8: Significant shifts in market pricing of Brexit risks p12: Spain election on June 26thp15: outlook for Fed rate hikesp17: US growth should pickup despite rising reces [more]
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This report is for Deutsche Bank clients only, not the broader voting public in the UK. Deutsche Bank does not intend to promote a particular outcome to the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. Readers who are eligible to vote in the UK referendum should vote as they personally see fit. The June 23rd Brexit referendum is fast approaching. With just one month to go, the outcome remains too close to call. Polls remain too tight, and in any case have been poor predictors of recent UK elections. The referendum could have profound implications on the future of both the UK and the EU. In case of an Out result, the priority will be to negotiate the new UK-EU relationship terms. There are many reasons why this could take longer than the 2 years envisaged in the EU Treaty. During the negotiations, the EU would have to strike a difficult balance between preserving links with the UK and discouraging others from following the UK. The implications of Brexit for the UK and EU economies are difficult to assess, beyond the fact that heightened uncertainty during the negotiation period would weigh on growth in both regions. Markets are pricing Brexit risk to varying degrees. As such, a modest relief rally is likely in the case of a Remain result, with a risk sell-off in case of Leave. Brexit would likely mean a weaker pound, steeper gilt curves and lower UK equities. As for EU assets, Brexit would likely mean lower core long-rates with periphery underperforming, initially weaker euro and lower equities. The long-term impact is difficult to predict. Read the May edition of The House View: A challenging road, published on 17-May. [more]
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本レポートは、Deutsche Bank Group発行の「The House View - A challenging road 」(2016年5月17日付)を和訳したものであり、内容に関しては原文が優先されます。--------------------------------- ここ数週間、世界の成長を巡る懸念が再浮上し、2月中旬以降続いていたリスク資産の上昇局面が一服している。足元の経済指標が体系的に悪化しているわけではないが、とりわけ中国当局の政策スタンスが積極的な緩和から中立に転換するなか、中国の成長の勢いに鈍化の兆候がみられ、不安が高まっている。こうした懸念はあるが、中国の緩やかな減速は米国の成長加速やユーロ圏の成長持続で相殺されるため、年末にかけて主要3地域の成長はわずかに減速するにとどまると当社はみている。 市場にとっては険しい道のりが続くことになろう。世界の成長を巡る懸念がくすぶるなか、今後数ヵ月間、主要中銀が刺激策を実施する可能性は低い。欧州中央銀行(ECB)と日本銀行はおそらく政策を据え置くだろう。米連邦準備制度理事会(FRB)による利上げはほとんど織り込まれていないことを鑑みれば、見通しがさらに低下しても短期的にリスク資産の追い風となる公算は小さい。さらに、地政学的なリスクイベントが近づいている。特に6月は、英国で欧州連合(EU)離脱の是非を問う国民投票、スペインで総選挙が実施される。続いて、米国、さらにフランス、ドイツの選挙を控えており、2017年まで政治が注目を集め、市場を揺さぶる可能性がある。 こうした状況を踏まえ、大半の市場についての当社の見解は当面中立である。ドルは底入れの過程にあるが、大幅な反発は予想していない。債券市場はポジション面から急落は考えにくいため、レンジ内での推移を予想する。株価も方向感を欠く展開となる見通しだが、リスクは下振れ方向である。新興国株価の上昇局面は終わったが、大幅に下落する公算は小さい。社債については、当社はより明確なディレクショナルな見解をもっている。米ハイイールド債は、軟調なテクニカル要因に低調なファンダメンタルズが加わり、スプレッドの拡大が見込まれる。欧州の投資適格債については、ECBのQEによる社債購入開始を控えて、引き続き強気である。 グループ・チーフ・エコノミストDavid Folkerts-Landau [more]
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The sustained rally in risk assets since mid-February ground to a halt in recent weeks as global growth concerns resurfaced. Recent data have not systematically worsened. But anxiety has risen especially amid signs that China growth momentum is slowing as the policy stance turns from aggressive easing to more neutral. Despite these concerns, we expect only a modest deceleration into year-end from the three largest economies, as China’s gradual slowdown is offset by an accelerating US while eurozone growth continues apace. It continues to be a challenging road for markets. Adding to global growth worries is the likely absence of a major boost from central banks in the coming months. The ECB and BoJ are likely to remain on hold. A further reduction in Fed expectations is unlikely to help risk assets near term, given how little is priced. To top things up, geopolitical risk events are fast approaching, with notably the UK’s EU referendum and Spanish elections in June; with US and then France and Germany elections upcoming, politics will remain prominent through 2017 and could upset markets. This leaves us with a short-term neutral view on most markets. We see the dollar as being in the process of bottoming out, but do not expect a sharp rebound. Rates are likely to remain range-bound, with positioning preventing a sell-off. Equities should also trade without much direction, though risks are skewed to the downside. And while the EM rally has stopped, we do not expect a sharp sell-off. Credit is where we have stronger directional views: we expect US HY spreads to widen as weak technicals add to poor fundamentals and remain constructive on European IG ahead of the start of ECB QE purchases. David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist Key pages this month: p6: China and global growth concerns p12: Fed, ECB, BoJ outlookp15: upcoming political risksp17: dollar bottoming outp22: central bank risk events becoming more clustered [more]
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In this Infographic we look at this week’s Bank of Japan policy meeting. Weak growth, low inflation and an impressive yen rally have heightened expectations for monetary easing in Japan. We actually expect the BoJ to stay on hold. If it does ease, it has a number of policy tools available, but likely no silver bullet. Recent The House View publications:The House View: A delicate balance – 19-April-2016The House View Special: Searching for liquidity – March 2016 [more]
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In the last month the global macro backdrop has improved. The manufacturing sector seems to have bottomed-out and data from China are stronger. Elsewhere, we expect eurozone growth to maintain its recent trend, US growth to pick-up after another weak first quarter, but EM growth to stay weak. Dovish shifts by central banks earlier this year have supported economic growth and markets. This month, we do not expect any significant news from the ECB and Fed. We do not think the BoJ will ease again either, but this is where the biggest upside risk is. Beyond April, however, the path for the Fed, and how the difference between market pricing and Fed guidance is reconciled, are the main uncertainties. This backdrop leaves markets in a delicate balance. The risk rally can extend further if economic data remain strong enough to ease growth concerns, but weak enough to keep the Fed on hold. But sentiment could reverse if the Fed is seen as closer to raising rates, or if, at the other extreme, growth stutters, oil sells-off, political risk escalates in Europe or China concerns re-emerge. Therefore we remain cautiously positive on equities, neutral core rates, and still believe in the strong dollar theme – although a reversal of recent weakness hinges on the market pricing more Fed rate rises. We expect corporate credit to remain supported by the upcoming ECB purchases, especially in Europe. Finally, a Fed on hold should allow EM assets to perform, but the focus remains on idiosyncratic stories. David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist Key pages this month: p 6: macro backdrop has improved but global growth remains sluggishp 9: in near-term, geopolitical risk dominates European outlookp12: how to read recent mixed messages from Fedp14: outlook for BoJp18: drivers of recent market movesp20: bull-bear cases for equities [more]