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28.08.2014
Scope for strengthening smartphone ties: 1 in 4 users also surfs at night
Topics: E-commerce; Electrical engineering; Germany; Information technology; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Media/PR & Advertising; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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27.08.2014
Progress needs broadband: Private investment requires more government stimuli
Abstract: Besides transport and energy infrastructure, communications infrastructure is steadily gaining in importance in the regional competition to attract investment. One source of concern in particular though is the significant gulf in investment both between west German and east German federal states as well as between urban and rural regions. This is compounded by the problem that there is usually no viable business model for projects in rural areas without government subsidies. As there is no such thing as a standard blueprint for the broadband rollout with its huge investment requirements, every single project with its specific local features needs to undergo a critical economic feasibility analysis. On this basis, efforts should be taken to work out the best rollout model in terms of technology, funding and time horizon, respectively. In essence, the broadband rollout in Germany requires more government stimuli to foster private investment, but these efforts need to be coordinated and based on sound judgement.
Topics: Digitalisation; Economic growth; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Media/PR & Advertising; Other sectors; Privatisation/liberalisation; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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14.08.2014
German industry: Economic engine sputters but does not stall
Abstract: Following the disappointing performance of German industry in Q2 2014, we have revised our production forecast for the year 2014 from +4% to +2.5%. Despite the current geopolitical risks we see no general change in the trend but rather a temporary dip. In the chemicals industry, mechanical engineering and the metal industry we have corrected our forecast downwards – in some cases markedly.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry
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07.08.2014
German GDP growth: Only 1 ½% after all
Abstract: People say that life is easier for optimists. However, this has not held true for forecasters of German economic growth for quite a while now. The good start into the year (Q1: +0.8 qoq) and the upbeat business and consumer sentiment back then had induced us in June to boost our full-year forecast from 1.5% to 1.8%. Nonetheless, we didn't relinquish our place at the lower end of the consensus, which in the meantime had climbed to 2%. If only we had kept our mouths shut!
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Germany; Macroeconomics
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04.08.2014
Focus Germany: Weaker recovery in H2
Abstract: Economic growth probably suffered a worse setback in Q2 than initially presumed. We only expect stagnation now, but would no longer rule out a minimal decline. All in all, global economic conditions do not point to dynamic growth in H2. In particular, the tougher sanctions on Russia and the risk of further escalation of the conflict are set to weigh on business sentiment and investment activity in spite of Russia's low share in German exports. The debate triggered by ECB and Bundesbank comments about higher wage increases in Germany is likely to have a similar impact, even though the substance of the statements is less spectacular, on closer inspection, than the media hype. As uncertainties abound we have decided to refrain for now from making a downward revision to our full-year forecast of 1.8% GDP growth.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities
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28.07.2014
Temporary immigration boom: A wake-up call for politicians?
Abstract: Germany has become the No. 1 destination country for migrants in Europe again and No. 2 in the whole OECD after the United States. The turnaround reflects the crisis in the EMU periphery as well as the (postponed) opening of the German labour market to citizens from the 10 Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 and 2007. The higher immigration should only temporarily obscure the negative effects from the introduction of a minimum wage and the retirement wave triggered by the "pension at 63" option. Given the economic recovery in the eurozone periphery the present migration surge is unlikely to last and ageing Germany’s demand for labour from outside the EU will increase. Therefore, Germany needs to shape up to encourage more pull-based immigration. This requires a skills-oriented migration policy as well as more flexibility in the labour market and at the company level.
Topics: Demographics; Economic growth; Education; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Migration; Socio-econ. trends
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04.07.2014
Germany: Above trend, but no price pressure
Abstract: Germany should enjoy the strongest growth among EMU countries, courtesy of a healthy domestic economy. Despite too-low interest rates and a tight labour market, there are no signs of imbalances building up, except maybe residential property markets in some urban centres.
Topics: Business cycle; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Prices, inflation
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02.07.2014
Media: New offers and suppliers change business from scratch
Abstract: For a long time, technological progress in the world of media has surpassed the improved image display via screen diagonal or contrast by far. This is not only shown by the gadgets which the TV viewer may use for his or her personal analysis of the games of the FIFA Football World Cup. This opens completely new opportunities and business models for the large field of visual media. More and more, media use is currently understood as a location-, time- and device-independent option with the possibility of personalisation and interaction. Thus, television viewers, who were previously condemned to passivity, now have the option to compose their own programmes and watch at times convenient to them.
Topics: E-commerce; Economic trends; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Other sectors; Privatisation/liberalisation; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Technology and innovation
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01.07.2014
Uneven decline in sectoral exports to Russia
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Eastern Europe; Economic growth; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
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30.06.2014
Focus Germany: Solid growth, low inflation (despite ECB)
Abstract: After a good start into 2014, manufacturing output in Germany looks set to grow by 4% in real terms in the full year. Even though business expectations have recently weakened somewhat, they remain in positive territory. Despite the good labour market situation in Germany inflation has decelerated noticeably. The outlook of a recovering global economy, a sliding euro and the introduction of a nation-wide minimum wage in Germany lead us to forecast that inflation is bottoming out. After hitting 1.1% in the current year it could pick up to 1.6% in 2015.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Economic structure; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities
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