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Focus Germany: German growth after oil, EUR and ECB
Abstract: Late last year we raised our GDP forecast for Germany from 0.8% to 1.0% on account of the steep downside correction on expectations for oil prices. We now expect German GDP growth to hit 1.4% in 2015. Reasons: Growth slightly exceeded expectations in Q4 2014; the oil price forecast for 2015 has been lowered again; and the euro has fallen more sharply against the US dollar than anticipated. Given this good outlook for the economy Germany's public budgets are likely to show a slight surplus again in 2015. Moreover, the current account surplus is set to jump to 8% of GDP. This suggests there will be further calls for Germany to use its fiscal room for manoeuvre to pursue a public investment programme. Also, international criticism of German economic policy is likely to grow louder. Further topics in this issue: German industrial output forecast upped to 1.5%, 10 "golden" rules for ifo, PMI and Co., The view from Berlin.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Sectors / commodities
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Industry 4.0, Big Data and the cloud: driving tomorrow's innovations
Topics: Economic structure; Economic trends; Electrical engineering; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Services; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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Capital investment in Germany at sectoral level: Service providers continue to expand while industry contracts slightly
Abstract: Germany's service sectors have shown themselves to be keener to invest than industry in recent years. The net fixed assets held by the service sectors grew by almost 28% in real terms between 1995 and 2012, although their growth rate has slowed over time. By contrast, the capital stock in the industrial sectors has shrunk by 1.6% in real terms. While, on the one hand, politicians in Germany have been expressing regret or even voicing criticism over the country's current lack of capital spending, on the other they have recently introduced measures (such as their policies on pensions and labour markets) that are hampering investment in Germany rather than stimulating it; this approach is inconsistent.
Topics: Auto industry; Chemicals industry; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic structure; Electrical engineering; Energy sector; Food and beverages; Gas industry; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market policy; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Retail trade; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social policy; Steel industry; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Textiles and clothing industry; Transport
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Focus Germany – Outlook 2015: Recovery with risks attached
Abstract: Following a weak winter half in 2014/15 the economy looks likely to regain its footing as 2015 progresses. However, sluggish performance at the turn of the year means growth will probably average only 1% in 2015 after 1.4% in 2014. It is encouraging, however, that private consumption should remain a major pillar of growth, whereas net exports are likely to have a neutral impact. Nonetheless, signs are increasing that some – in our opinion misguided – economic policy moves (such as the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage as well as an enhanced pensions package) are weighing on the labour market and thus on consumption. Given a weakening of cyclical activity and the costs of economic policy measures, we expect the general government budget to be slightly in deficit in 2015.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Economic growth; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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Augmented reality: Fears should not completely overshadow the opportunities that beckon
Abstract: Major trade events such as the upcoming CES for consumer technology and also the recently held Medica for healthcare are the showcases for augmented reality products available in the near future: dental implants that enable deaf people to hear; electronic gloves that convert sign language into text and smart glasses that display information about what or who is facing the wearer. These innovations are highly attractive, but also stoke fears – especially about potential privacy infringements. These fears definitely need to be taken seriously. They should not, however, be allowed to completely overshadow the potential of the myriad business and social opportunities that extend far beyond cutting costs and minimising the risks associated with particularly critical activities.
Topics: E-commerce; Electrical engineering; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Media/PR & Advertising; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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New deal(s)? Chinese investment in Germany is entering a new phase
Abstract: China-Europe relations are increasingly being shaped by the expanding bilateral exchange between China and Germany, its largest trading partner in the EU. Germany accounted for 45% of EU exports to China and 28% of EU imports from China in 2013. In the first nine months of 2014, EUR 114 bn worth of goods were shipped between the two countries, up 8% from the same period in 2013. Building on these well-established trade ties, China and Germany are now embarking on a concerted push to strengthen investment relations in sync with a surge in Chinese M&A activity into Germany.
Topics: Asia; Economic policy; Emerging markets; European issues; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!
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Case for higher investment in infrastructure – despite questionable ”gap analysis”
Abstract: Germany is constantly being accused of investing too little. Critics say this hurts Germany itself as well as other countries. This assertion enjoys broad support among (high-profile) economic researchers, international institutions such as the IMF and many lobbyists from the German business community. They see the extra public investment requirements running to 3% of GDP (per year!), with the going buzzword being the "investment gap". The government, in particular, has been called upon to significantly boost its investments in infrastructure. Even the disappointing GDP figures and lowered growth expectations of the past few months are now also being used to justify demands for a rapid increase in (public) investment. Hopes of growth stimuli for the neighbouring countries of Europe are playing a key role in many of these demands – especially at the high end of the demand scale.
Topics: Business cycle; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Economic trends; Energy sector; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends
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Christmas shopping is going digital!
Topics: E-commerce; Germany; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Retail trade; Sectors / commodities; Services; Technology and innovation
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Focus Germany: Structural downshift in global trade burdens growth outlook
Abstract: Underlying growth of the German economy has slowed in Q3. After average quarterly growth rates of over 0.3% qoq in the last 1 ½ years, GDP expanded just 0.1% in Q3. We expect about stagnation in the next two quarters with a risk of a negative print as sentiment has weakened further in October/November. The little momentum of global trade since 2012 points towards structural changes, which will affect German exports in particular. German export growth should therefore remain relatively muted during the next few years. We forecast average real German export growth at the lower end of a range of 4%-6% between 2014 and 2019, which should be buttressed by a depreciation of the euro.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Trade
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Konzept Issue 01
Abstract: Innovation is one of the core values of Deutsche Bank. It helps us find sustainable solutions for our stakeholders and evolve our thinking about the future. This new magazine from Deutsche Bank Research represents such innovation.
Topics: Economic policy; EMU; European policy issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Residential real estate; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation
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