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Focus Germany: Strong domestic demand – but no excesses
Abstract: Since the last Focus Germany, some disappointing economic data have been published that fuelled the speculations around a slowing German economy. We do not believe that this requires revisions of our GDP forecast, though. Just like last year, the weakness of the industrial data is overstated by holiday effects. Nevertheless, there is a risk of an even lower foreign demand than stated by our already cautious estimates. This, however, is balanced by the upward risks for the domestic economy. Due to the migration dynamics over the summer months, we are reducing our budget forecasts for 2015 and 2016. Relative to gross domestic product we now expect surpluses of 0.3% and 0.0%, respectively (previously 0.7% and 0.5%).
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Capital markets; Demographics; Economic growth; Economic policy; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Social policy; Socio-econ. trends
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Interview with Peter Schaar on the topic future challenges of the digital age
Abstract: „... The question as to who has access to our data is becoming ever more important in light of current data collection and processing practices. Contrary to expectations, today's information society is primarily transparent in only one direction like a one-way mirror, with transparent users on one side and largely non-transparent, digital power centres on the other. No society in which ever more data is available at the global level is immune to cultural impoverishment and oppression....”
Topics: Economic structure; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Media/PR & Advertising; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Socio-econ. trends; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Trade
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Germany: Is housing policy heading towards the precipice?
Abstract: It will take many years to reduce the demand overhang in the housing market if there is not a huge jump in building activity. This harbours the risk that the current phase of prices returning to normal could first lead to overshooting and end in a market correction. This scenario comes with high economic costs. These could be avoided by improving depreciation conditions for newbuild housing in Germany's large cities and metropolitan regions.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Cities; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic trends; Germany; Housing policy; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Residential real estate; Sectors / commodities; Social policy; Supervision and regulation
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Focus Germany: Migration, urbanisation, inflation
Abstract: Although the external and the financial environment have deteriorated we have lifted our 2016 GDP call to 1.9% (1.7%). Drivers are stronger real consumption growth due to lower oil prices/stronger EUR and the surge in immigration which should ceteris paribus add about ½ pp to consumption (split between private and public). The risks are mainly external (EMs). We lower our forecast for German inflation (national definition) in 2015 and 2016 to 0.3% and 1.3% from 0.5% and 2.0%. The relatively large adjustment for 2016 is due to the weaker inflation development in H2 2015 and due to our expectations of a weaker dynamic in 2016.
Topics: Business cycle; Cities; Demographics; Economic growth; European issues; European policy issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market; Labour market policy; Migration; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Residential real estate; Social policy; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Trade
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Presentation: German FinTechs and traditional banks: Friend or Foe?
Topics: Banking; E-commerce; Financial market trends; Germany; Global financial markets; Information technology; Innovation; International capital markets; Internet
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German bank lending: Market share developments in individual sectors
Abstract: In German corporate lending business, the role played by the different banking groups varies considerably between individual industries. For instance, a relatively large share of loans to the manufacturing sector – and particularly the "core" of German industry, mechanical engineering and automotives – is provided by commercial banks. Lending to construction and agricultural firms, on the other hand, is dominated by savings banks and cooperative banks. The retail banks have also gained significant ground in the services sector over the past 10 years. Landesbanks have only two strongholds, utilities/mining and transport.
Topics: Banking; Financial market trends; Germany; International capital markets; International financial system; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Sectors / commodities
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Augmented reality: Specialised applications are the key to this fast-growing market for Germany
Abstract: Augmented reality is far more than the much-discussed smartglasses that are equated with horrific dystopian scenarios in which everyone is under surveillance. The fact is that augmented reality supports people in their day-to-day activities, extends their perception and facilitates communication. That is why it is important not to write off the technology in its entirety, simply because of one individual application, but instead to seize the highly attractive opportunities presented by this fast-growing market. German companies, however, would probably do well to offer customised services for commercial applications in niche markets where the tech giants have not become established.
Topics: Digitalisation; E-commerce; Electrical engineering; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Media/PR & Advertising; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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eHealth: Industry 4.0 can serve as the model for digital healthcare
Abstract: The healthcare sector uses advanced digital equipment that is supposed to accelerate medical progress and at the same time ensure economic efficiency. However, the gaps that exist are extremely worrying. In many highly developed advanced economies, and especially in Germany, there are already signs of the coming challenges connected with predicted population ageing and the associated shortage of doctors and the pressure on costs in the healthcare system. Here, technological progress in all its facets, from teleconsulting right through to 3D bioprinting, can dampen the increase in healthcare costs without adversely affecting quality. However, before this potential for boosting macroeconomic efficiency can be tapped there are economic, legal and societal obstacles that need to be surmounted (with regard to data protection, remuneration systems, education and network expansion, for example). The first steps in the right direction have already been taken – albeit with extreme caution and circumspection in some of these cases. In this respect it can certainly help to take a look at the industrial sector where digital technology is already making inroads under the “Industry 4.0” moniker.
Topics: Demographics; E-commerce; Economic structure; Economic trends; Electrical engineering; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Macroeconomics; Other sectors; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Services; Social policy; Socio-econ. trends; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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German industry benefits from free trade
Abstract: Free trade stimulates economic activity in all the signatory countries. The free trade agreement between the EU and South Korea is a relatively recent example providing evidence of this fact. In H1 2015, German goods exports to South Korea were up by more than 50% on the level before the agreement came into force in July 2011; by contrast, total German exports increased by merely 13% in the same period. True, German imports from South Korea fell during this period. However, this was due to two sector-specific one-off effects. Stripping out these effects, the imports rose at an above-average pace. The positive economic stimuli should also be a strong argument in support of the current TTIP negotiations.
Topics: Auto industry; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Electrical engineering; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. economic system; Intern. relations; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
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Focus Germany: Solid growth, budget surpluses but new challenges
Abstract: GDP growth accelerated slightly to +0.4% qoq in Q2 with disappointing details. The domestic economy was a drag due to the decline of investments and an inventory reduction. Consumption slowed. Net exports were the major growth engine. German exports benefitted from the weaker EUR and strong demand especially from the US. We cut our Q3 GDP growth forecast slightly to 0.4% qoq. Despite this downward revision, we modestly increase our 2015 GDP forecast to 1.7% due to the marginal upward revision of H1 numbers, and changes in the growth composition. Fundamentally our outlook remains unchanged. Domestic demand, esp. private consumption, is the primary growth driver and the external environment remains challenging.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Economic growth; Economic policy; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation
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