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Konzept Issue 01
Abstract: Innovation is one of the core values of Deutsche Bank. It helps us find sustainable solutions for our stakeholders and evolve our thinking about the future. This new magazine from Deutsche Bank Research represents such innovation.
Topics: Economic policy; EMU; European policy issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Residential real estate; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation
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New growth opportunities for Germany's engineering sector: Technology leadership and outward investment
Abstract: German engineering firms must prepare to confront several trends over the medium term. The first of these is that a new, bipolar world of engineering markets is emerging. The United States and (once again) China are set to become especially promising centres of growth going forward. Further future trends are, secondly, the gradual shift in product focus towards customised system solutions; thirdly, the growing importance of not purely price-related competitive factors; and fourthly, the reconfiguration of the global division of labour in the engineering sector as the classic distinction between producer countries focusing on standard machinery and others focusing on speciality equipment becomes increasingly untenable. Provided that traditional suppliers to the manufacturing sector manage to spot the new mega-trends in good time, they will be able to build on these to develop promising strategies that enable them to adapt, survive and – ultimately – grow.
Topics: Auto industry; Germany; Globalisation; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Mechanical engineering; Sectors / commodities; SMEs; Technology and innovation
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Focus Germany: Further disappointments
Abstract: We have cut our German GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.3% for 2014 and further from 1.5% to 0.8% for 2015. We do not see Germany falling into a technical recession in Q3. But the 6 month slump of the ifo index has increased the risk that we might see a negative GDP print in Q4 2014 or Q1 2015. The positive effect of weaker oil prices will be offset by wage growth slowing from 3% plus this year towards 2% in 2015, as export-orientated sectors will respond to weaker external demand. Further topics in this issue: German industry: Temporary slowdown; German construction: Robust investment, but price momentum slowing; Inheritance tax: Constitutional Court ruling likely to weigh harder on business heirs; 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall: "Blooming landscapes" only in part.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Commercial real estate; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Real estate; Residential real estate; Sectors / commodities; Tax policy
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German industry: Output growth to remain shy of 1% in 2015
Abstract: Following weak performance in winter half-year 2014/15 industrial production in Germany is likely to return to a moderate uptrend in the course of 2015, resulting in expansion of roughly 1.5% in real terms in 2014 and about ¾% in 2015. This means the generally muted dynamics of industrial performance in evidence since 2011 would continue in 2015. Industry's share in total German gross value added (2013: 21.8%) will probably decline again, as in 2012 and 2013. The only moderate growth of industry is primarily attributable to the currently subdued level of business activity and external shocks. Nonetheless, structural factors are going to regain importance. The ball is now in the politicians' court. Many of their recently adopted measures give rise to fears that Germany's international competitiveness as an industrial location is likely to decline.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic structure; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Textiles and clothing industry
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Higher German inflation: Mission impossible?
Abstract: Why are German wages/inflation not responding? Much of the answer lies in cultural factors and personal traits which manifest themselves in a high aversion to inflation. This in turn has led to Germany’s unique economic fundamentals and institutions. At the core it seems that Germans and German society can handle distribution conflicts involving time inconsistency problems better, on average, than many other nations. Given the German peculiarities the ECB has more time to run its supportive policy without creating new imbalances in the largest EMU economy. Therefore the ECB has scope to extend its balance sheet via private and most likely public QE.
Topics: Economic growth; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Social values / Consumer behaviour
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Recent oil price drop hardly noticeable at the pump)
Topics: Auto industry; Economic policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Tax policy; Transport; Transport policy
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National IT Summit: Ensure progress away from the limelight as well!
Abstract: The German government has invited interested parties to a National IT Summit. High-ranking figures from the political, business and academic arenas will meet to tackle the following assignment: “Working and living with digital change – together.innovative.self-determined”. At the summit specific tasks are to be designated in order to boost Germany's capabilities in the area of information and communication technologies. The issues of broadband expansion and Industry 4.0 are pivotal to this assignment. Bold ideas and commitment are urgently required, but not intervention in competition taken for the sake of appearances. The objective is that decisive progress is made with digitalisation in Germany away from the summit limelight as well.
Topics: E-commerce; Economic growth; Economic structure; Economic trends; Electrical engineering; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Mechanical engineering; Other sectors; Sectors / commodities; Services; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication
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Come on you (digital) inventors and entrepreneurs!
Abstract: The opportunities provided by digital structural change are being talked up heavily, and the shape they will take over the long term can only be guessed at. Today, everyone can participate interactively in digital spaces as long as they have access to the internet. Flexible and varied relationships are formed between people and their diverse identities in the online and offline worlds. Experimental forms of participation and collaboration will become more important in the medium term, which will continually influence the value creation process in many firms. Digitalisation is thus changing our social and economic lives as well as the way that we interact with one another and how we (have to learn to) handle (personal) data in future.
Topics: Auto industry; E-commerce; Economic policy; Economic structure; Economic trends; Education; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Innovation; Intangible assets; Internet; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Media/PR & Advertising; Retail trade; Sectors / commodities; Services; SMEs; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Technology and innovation
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Focus Germany: Heightened risks
Abstract: The recent positive surprises provided by real economic indicators have for now banished concerns that Germany might slide into recession in Q3. However, the ongoing geopolitical risks and the question marks hanging over the expected cyclical upturn will probably lead to weaker growth in exports and company investment. That is why we have scaled back our growth forecast for the winter half-year 2014/2015. Thus, we have lowered our forecast from 1.8% to 1.5%. In our current issue we also address Germany’s fiscal position, we analyse the consequences of potential Russian gas supply disruptions and we take a look at the investment behaviour of German households.
Topics: Business cycle; Capital markets; Economic growth; Economic policy; Energy sector; Environmental policy; Environmental protection; Fiscal policy; Gas industry; Germany; Intern. relations; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Sustainability
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Germany’s fiscal position – too good to last
Abstract: At a time when there are increasing voices demanding a more flexible interpretation of the Maastricht deficit rules, German Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble has presented his budget plan, which does without any new federal debt between 2015 and 2018. This comes much to the chagrin of France, where his colleague Michel Sapin has been forced to admit that this year’s deficit will be at least 4.3% of GDP and that meeting the 3% target needs to be postponed for the third time until 2017 at the earliest.
Topics: Business cycle; EMU; Fiscal policy; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!
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