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European issues

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1 06.06.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Strong economy supports Merkel’s re-election chances
Abstract: After Q1’s sturdy 0.6% qoq GDP growth, soft indicators do not signal any moderation of the growth momentum. Employment in 2017 so far, has been expanding at similar clip as in 2016, making our 1% consumption forecast for 2017 quite conservative. Exports have rebounded in the winter half – in line with global trade. The growth momentum of global trade seems to have peaked; therefore, we remain cautious, predicting 3.6% German export growth in 2017 after 2.7% last year. In combination with lingering geo-political uncertainty this will weigh on investment spending, where a utilization rate of 2pp above its long-term average suggests a still limited necessity to invest. Following Q1 GDP growth of 0.6% we have revised our 2017 GDP forecast to 1.3% (1.1%). Latest confidence surveys, however, hint at further upside potential and increasing risks of over-heating for 2018. Political observers in Germany have recently been focusing on the SPD’s ups and downs in the polls and the CDU’s reverse showing while smaller parties are fighting for public attention. From the present point of view (polls) a Jamaica coalition is the sole arithmetically feasible alternative to a renewed grand coalition after the September election. (Further topics: German industrial output – forecast for 2017; Corporate funding in Q1 – lending)
Topics: Auto industry; Banking; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Global financial markets; International capital markets; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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2 06.06.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Robuste Konjunktur unterstützt Merkels Wiederwahl
Abstract: Deutsches BIP: Weitere Aufwärtsrisiken. Nach dem beeindruckenden BIP-Wachstum von 0,6 % gegen Vorquartal in Q1 deuten weiche Indikatoren (ifo, PMI) auf keinerlei Verlangsamung hin. Die Beschäftigung ist in 2017 bis dato ähnlich stark wie in 2016 gestiegen. Damit könnte unsere Prognose einer Zunahme des privaten Verbrauchs um 1% in 2017 zu vorsichtig sein. Im Winterhalbjahr haben sich die Ausfuhren zusammen mit dem Welthandel erholt. Allerdings gibt es Anzeichen, dass die Dynamik des Welthandels ihren Höhepunkt erreicht haben könnte. Zusammen mit den anhaltenden geopolitischen Unsicherheiten dürfte das moderate Exportwachstum die Investitionstätigkeit dämpfen. Nach der Bekanntgabe des Wachstums von 0,6% für Q1 haben wir unsere Prognose für 2017 von 1,0% auf 1,3% angehoben. Jüngste Umfragen deuten weitere Aufwärtsrisiken an. In 2018 könnte die deutsche Konjunktur überhitzen. (Weitere Themen dieser Ausgabe: Deutsche Industrieproduktion; Unternehmensfinanzierung in Q1 – Kreditvergabe; Konjunktur in der Eurozone; EZB-Politik)
Topics: Auto industry; Banking; Business cycle; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Global financial markets; International capital markets; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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3 07.04.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Öffentliche Investitionen und Wohnungsbau ziehen an
Abstract: Öffentliche Investitionen: Mehr in der Pipeline. In der internationalen Debatte werden öffentliche Investitionen vielfach als nützlicher Hebel für eine höhere Binnennachfrage gesehen. Trotz internationaler Kritik und politischer Willensbekundung sind die öffentlichen Investitionen in Deutschland in den letzten zwei Jahren nur moderat gestiegen. In den kommenden Jahren dürften die öffentlichen Investitionen jedoch spürbar zulegen.
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Sectors / commodities; Socio-econ. trends; Trade
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4 06.04.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Investment: Public, residential – gradually picking up
Abstract: In international debate public investment is often regarded as a useful lever for promoting higher domestic demand. Despite international criticism and political declarations of intent, public investment in Germany has only increased moderately over the past two years and has remained average, at best, on an international scale. In the coming years, however, public investment is expected to grow significantly. The current investment plans for the federal budget are 40% higher than those adopted in 2013. Public contracts for the construction industry in 2016 were between 15 and 27% above the average of the previous 10 years. The excellent state of the public finances at the various government levels also supports the prospect of increasing investment growth. However, severe capacity shortages in the construction industry are likely to mean that the high demand for investment will not quickly lead to an increase in construction activity. (Further articles: German housing market, Corporate bond boom in Germany, Result of the Saarland election)
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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5 04.04.2017 Articles: European Policy Research
Are Europeans facing an identity crisis?
Abstract: In the current debate about the future of the EU, politicians as well as the media are warning of a tendency by member states to shift their focus back to their own national interests and of a subsequent loss of significance of the EU. Are policymakers reacting to actual changes in the attitudes of EU citizens or is there an underlying perception issue here?
Topics: European integration; European issues; European policy issues
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6 30.03.2017 Artikel: Wirtschaftspolitik
Identitätskrise der Europäer?
Abstract: In der aktuellen Debatte um die Zukunft der EU warnen Politiker ebenso wie Medien vor dem Rückfall der Mitgliedstaaten in „Nationalstaaterei“ und einem damit verbundenen Bedeutungsverlust der EU. Reagiert die Politik damit auf tatsächlich veränderte Einstellungen der EU-Bürger oder gibt es hier eher ein Wahrnehmungsproblem?
Topics: European integration; European issues; European policy issues
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7 27.03.2017 Articles: European Policy Research
The future of the EU: Which road to take?
Abstract: The discussion about the future of the EU27 is on. To frame the debate, the European Commission issued a White Paper in early March, including five scenarios to outline what the EU could look like in 2025. There is more than “more or less integration”. In fact, the two scenarios attracting most attention are ideas for a Union with stronger emphasis on differentiated integration and an option trying to reconcile calls for a leaner EU with ambition for integration on key issues. Ideas about multi-speed integration in particular are a sensitive topic among member states. The White Paper only marked the start. There are five further papers planned for Q2 to provide more detail for different policy areas. From a market perspective, the paper fleshing out ideas for the future of EMU to be published towards the end of May should be the key one to watch.
Topics: Brexit; European issues
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8 23.03.2017 EU Monitor (Engl.)
Who is afraid of populists?
Abstract: With developments in the UK and the US, populism was a key theme in 2016. But does the perception of 2016 as “the year of the populists” really fit for Europe? A closer look suggests that while populism was an omnipresent theme in public discourse, support for populist parties in polls rather remained stable and elections did not translate into outright populist wins. The rise of populist parties has however been a multi-year trend. Populists can affect national politics in various ways. One possible effect is that forming a government (coalition) often gets more complicated and time-consuming and results in more fragile governments. Another is populists’ potential impact on policy discussions’ style and content. Pursuing policies with long-term benefits but which are often not instantly popular becomes more difficult ‒ both at the national and the European level.
Topics: Brexit; Economic policy; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Politics and elections
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9 09.03.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Growth and inflation leave ECB still unfazed
Abstract: At face value the pick-up of GDP growth at the end of 2016 (Q4: +0.4% qoq vs. +0.1% prev.) seems to fit with improving sentiment. However, given its composition we would argue that underlying growth was weaker than the headline suggests. We stick to our below consensus GDP forecast for 2017 (1.1%) and only make cosmetic changes in the details. We are raising our inflation forecast slightly overall for 2017, from 1.6% to 1.7%, compared with only 0.5% in 2016. We still expect core inflation to be only slightly above 1% in 2017. If the signs of global price increases are confirmed, then we could in fact see a more pronounced increase in core inflation, particularly if rising prices translate into second-round effects when wage negotiations are conducted in 2018. (Further articles: German industry, German election campaign)
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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10 08.03.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Wachstum und Inflation dürften EZB noch kalt lassen
Abstract: Auf den ersten Blick scheint das anziehende BIP-Wachstum zum Jahresende 2016 (Q4: +0,4% gg. Vq.; zuvor: +0,1%) konsistent mit den angestiegenen Konjunkturindikatoren. Allerdings zeigt die Zusammensetzung des BIP-Wachstums eine eher schwächere zugrundeliegende Dynamik. Wir behalten deshalb unsere unter dem Konsens liegende BIP-Prognose von 1,1% für das Jahr 2017 bei. Unsere Inflationsprognose für 2017 heben wir insgesamt minimal an auf 1,7% von 1,6% nach nur 0,5% in 2016. Dabei erwarten wir die Kerninflation in 2017 weiter bei gut 1%. Sollten sich die Anzeichen für den globalen Preisauftrieb bestätigen, könnte die Kerninflation aber deutlicher zulegen, insbesondere wenn in 2018 anziehende Preise Zweitrundeneffekte bei den Lohnverhandlungen nach sich ziehen sollten. Wir erwarten weiterhin, dass die EZB erst im September Aussagen zum „Tapering“ treffen wird, die dann ab Januar 2018 umgesetzt werden. Von der Pressekonferenz erwarten wir Hinweise in Richtung eines langsamen und graduellen Übergangs zu einer weniger expansiven Geldpolitik.
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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