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Intern. relations

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1 30.01.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: New SPD frontrunner unlikely to defeat Merkel
Abstract: 2016 GDP growth picked up further relative to the previous two years (1.9% vs. 1.7%). Growth was strongly tilted towards consumption thanks to several tailwinds (refugee crisis, low inflation, labour market strength), while slowing exports weighed on private equipment investment: With several tailwinds fading and a strong workday effect weighing, GDP growth looks set to slow to 1.1% in 2017. Recent sentiment indicators herald some upside risks for the current quarter. However, the 2.3 point drop in the expectations component of the January ifo index seems to corroborate our more cautious stance. In an unexpected turn, SPD party leader Gabriel announced that he would not run against Angela Merkel. Instead Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, will be the party’s frontrunner. Mr. Schulz’s unexpected nomination is likely to push the SPD’s campaign for the federal election on September 24 but unlikely to derail Merkel.
Topics: Business cycle; European issues; European policy issues; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation
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2 30.01.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Risiken für den Export – trotz unterstützender EZB
Abstract: Das deutsche BIP-Wachstum in 2016 erhöhte sich im Vergleich zu den beiden Vorjahren weiter (1,9% gg. Vj. nach 1,7%, bzw. 1,6%). Einige temporäre Faktoren (Flüchtlingszustrom, geringe Inflation, Stärke des Arbeitsmarktes) sorgten für eine äußerst robuste Binnenwirtschaft. Die Verlangsamung der Exporte belastet dagegen die privaten Ausrüstungsinvestitionen. Etwa die Hälfte des BIP-Wachstums ging auf Staatsausgaben zurück. Insgesamt deckte sich die Entwicklung weitgehend mit unseren Erwartungen und verändert daher unseren Ausblick auf 2017 nicht: Da einige günstige Faktoren abklingen und ein Arbeitstageeffekt dämpft, dürfte sich das BIP-Wachstum in 2017 auf 1,1% abschwächen. Jüngste Stimmungsindikatoren signalisieren gewisse Aufwärtsrisiken für unsere Konjunkturprognose. Weitere Themen:„Border Adjustment Tax“: Was ist das und was bedeutet es für deutsche Unternehmen? EZB: Geduld, Transparenz und Kerninflation.
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; European policy issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Macroeconomics; Prices, inflation; Tax policy
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3 25.01.2017 Germany Monitor
Uncertainty is slowing capital expenditure
Abstract: In view of the pronounced economic and (geo)political uncertainties and the weak starting level, (private-sector) equipment investment in Germany is likely to decrease in 2017 despite a respectable level of capacity utilisation. The interplay of multiple factors is currently causing a high level of uncertainty: the potentially serious impact on Germany in the event of the uncertainties materialising, the continued high number of simultaneous uncertainties, the complexity of many capital expenditure decisions and the lack of confidence in politicians (and/or their ability to come up with solutions). We will present several uncertainty indicators based on news, surveys and financial markets data that provide a way of quantifying the uncertainty.
Topics: Brexit; Demographics; Digitalisation; Economic policy; Energy policy; European issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Globalisation; Intern. relations; International capital markets; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Provision for old age; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Trade
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4 24.01.2017 EU Monitor (Engl.)
Coping with mixed feelings: What future for European trade policy?
Abstract: It is hard to overstate the importance of trade policy for Europe. The EU28 is the largest trading bloc, the top trading partner for about 80 countries worldwide and ranks 1st for in- and outbound investment. The EU’s free trade agreements (FTAs) vary substantially, depending on partners and policy priorities. “New generation trade agreements” go beyond traditional tariff reductions, including issues like services trade, intellectual property or investment. EU agreements to foster trade (and investment), however, have sparked mixed feelings more recently given the backlash against globalisation as well as EU-internal controversies over the power to strike such deals. Yet, the EU’s ability to conclude trade deals is also contingent on political support. Rising scepticism about globalisation means, that (potential) distributional effects of FTAs and their (potential) interaction with national legislation, is going to feature more prominently throughout negotiations and in the public debate.
Topics: Brexit; Economic policy; EMU; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Trade
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5 18.01.2017 Deutschland-Monitor
Unsicherheit bremst Investitionen aus
Abstract: Aufgrund der ausgeprägten wirtschaftlichen und (geo-)politischen Unsicherheit und des schwachen Startniveaus dürften die (privaten) Ausrüstungsinvestitionen in Deutschland 2017 sinken trotz insgesamt ordentlich ausgelasteter Kapazitäten der Unternehmen. Ein Zusammenspiel mehrerer Aspekte sorgt derzeit für das hohe Unsicherheitsniveau: die potenziell gravierenden Auswirkungen auf Deutschland bei Eintritt der Unsicherheiten, die anhaltend hohe Zahl gleichzeitiger Unsicherheiten, die Komplexität vieler Investitionsentscheidungen sowie der Mangel an Vertrauen in die (Lösungskompetenz der) Politik. Wir stellen eine Reihe von nachrichten-, umfrage- und finanzmarktbasierten Unsicherheitsindikatoren vor, die eine ansatzweise Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit erlauben, und geben einen Ausblick auf die unseres Erachtens wichtigsten Unsicherheiten.
Topics: Brexit; Demographics; Digitalisation; Economic growth; Economic policy; Energy policy; European issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Globalisation; Intern. relations; International capital markets; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Provision for old age; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Trade
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6 15.12.2016 Standpunkt Deutschland (Engl.)
Beacon of stability: The foundations of Germany’s success
Abstract: Germany remains an anchor of steadiness with an undisputed role as leader in Europe and is the only country that comes close to being on a par with America. This story of success is based on many structural factors, some of which complement and mutually reinforce each other. We group them as follows: (1) Macropolicies focused on stability and growth (2) Institutions grounded in German ‘ordoliberalism’ (3) Global companies with unique structures (4) An equitable system of social security and cooperative social partners (5) A long-term perspective by companies and citizens with the willingness to forgo immediate reward – in our view the most important factor in the success. The combination of innovative, multinational companies, functioning institutions and highly skilled workers will, in our view, maintain Germany’s competitiveness and prosperity into the future. German politicians are therefore confronted with the increasing challenge of holding the eurozone together. However, if anti-euro movements gain the upper hand in key partner countries, thereby increasing the disruptive risks, there may be a reassessment in Germany of the euro’s costs and benefits.
Topics: Economic growth; Economic policy; Education; Germany; Globalisation; Innovation; Intangible assets; Intern. economic system; Intern. relations; Macroeconomics; Sectors / commodities; Social policy; Socio-econ. trends; Sustainability; Technology and innovation; Trade
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7 15.12.2016 dbStandpunkt (Dt.)
Hochburg der Stabilität: Was Deutschland so erfolgreich macht
Abstract: Deutschland ist Stabilitätsanker mit unangefochtener Führungsrolle in Europa und befindet sich als einziges Land auf annähernd gleicher Augenhöhe mit den USA. Dies basiert auf vielen, sich zum Teil bedingenden und verstärkenden strukturellen Faktoren, die wir in fünf Gruppen einteilen: (1) Stabilitäts- und wachstumsorientierte Makropolitik (2) Ordo-liberal geprägte Institutionen (3) Global aufgestellte – strukturell einzigartige – Unternehmen (4) Ein ausgleichendes Sozialsystem mit kooperativen Tarifpartnern (5) Eine langfristige Orientierung von Unternehmen und Bürgern mit der Bereitschaft, auf sofortige Belohnung zu verzichten – dem ultimativ wichtigsten Erfolgsfaktor! Die Kombination aus innovativen, international aufgestellten Firmen, funktionierenden Institutionen und gut ausgebildeten Arbeitnehmern wird unserer Meinung nach auch zukünftig Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Wohlstand sichern. Die deutsche Politik steht damit vor der großen Herausforderung, die Eurozone zusammenzuhalten. Sollten in wichtigen Partnerländern eurokritische Strömungen die Oberhand gewinnen und damit die disruptiven Risiken steigen, könnte es auch in Deutschland zu einer Neueinschätzung der Kosten und Nutzen kommen.
Topics: Economic growth; Economic policy; Education; Germany; Globalisation; Innovation; Intangible assets; Intern. economic system; Intern. relations; Macroeconomics; Sectors / commodities; Social policy; Socio-econ. trends; Sustainability; Technology and innovation; Trade
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8 08.11.2016 Germany Monitor
Logistics: weak environment – no trend reversal in sight
Abstract: Over the next three to five years, global trade is likely to grow only at or around the same pace as global GDP. This structurally weaker momentum will be reflected in slow growth in the global and regional flow of goods, as has already been the case in recent years. In its role as an open, export-oriented economy, Germany – and the German logistics sector in particular – will continue to feel the sting of this development. At a nominal average of 2% a year, turnover growth in the sector is likely to be below the long-term average in the years ahead.
Topics: Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Intern. relations; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Services; SMEs; Trade; Transport; Transport policy
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9 26.10.2016 Deutschland-Monitor
Logistik: Schwaches Umfeld - Trendwende nicht in Sicht
Abstract: Der Welthandel dürfte in den nächsten drei bis fünf Jahren nur in etwa so stark wachsen wie das globale BIP. Diese strukturell geringere Dynamik wird sich – wie schon in den letzten Jahren – in einem niedrigeren Wachstum der globalen und regionalen Gütertransportströme widerspiegeln. Deutschland als offene, exportorientierte Volkswirtschaft und insbesondere die deutsche Logistikwirtschaft werden diese Entwicklung weiterhin negativ zu spüren bekommen. Das Umsatzwachstum in der Branche dürfte in den kommenden Jahren mit durchschnittlich 2% p.a. (nominal) unter dem langfristigen Durchschnitt liegen.
Topics: Economic growth; Economic policy; Germany; Globalisation; Information technology; Intern. relations; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Services; SMEs; Trade; Transport; Transport policy
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10 27.09.2016 Talking Point
German Climate Action Plan – facing up to reality
Abstract: The Climate Action Plan 2050 is intended to show how Germany can meet its climate change targets; it is currently out for consultation with Federal German government departments. There was intense public criticism when individual passages of an earlier draft of the plan were diluted at the instigation of the German Chancellery. In this political discussion, long-term political ideals are confronted by cautious (more realistic?) recent assessments of technological progress, the economies of scale achievable by climate-friendly technologies, and adoption by consumers. The Climate Action Plan remains vague in many important aspects, such as the technologies to be used to meet climate change targets, the approximate absolute costs that can be expected, the restrictions on consumer sovereignty and commercial freedom of choice that politicians are considering and the future infringement of ownership rights and vested interests.
Topics: Construction industry; Economic policy; Energy policy; Energy sector; Environmental policy; Environmental protection; Fiscal policy; Intern. relations; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Natural resources; Sectors / commodities; Social values / Consumer behaviour; Sustainability; Tax policy; Transport; Transport policy
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