Documentlist
Politics and elections

1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
No.DateFolder
Title
Size
1 23.03.2017 EU Monitor (Engl.)
Who is afraid of populists?
Abstract: With developments in the UK and the US, populism was a key theme in 2016. But does the perception of 2016 as “the year of the populists” really fit for Europe? A closer look suggests that while populism was an omnipresent theme in public discourse, support for populist parties in polls rather remained stable and elections did not translate into outright populist wins. The rise of populist parties has however been a multi-year trend. Populists can affect national politics in various ways. One possible effect is that forming a government (coalition) often gets more complicated and time-consuming and results in more fragile governments. Another is populists’ potential impact on policy discussions’ style and content. Pursuing policies with long-term benefits but which are often not instantly popular becomes more difficult ‒ both at the national and the European level.
Topics: Brexit; Economic policy; European integration; European issues; European policy issues; Politics and elections
load Pdf 453k 
2 16.03.2017 Talking Point
Unemployment benefit Q and the elusive quest for social justice
Abstract: Time to enhance (social) justice is the election campaign slogan of the SPD and its leadership candidate, Martin Schulz. To bring this slogan to life the chancellor candidate and the Federal Minister for Labour, Andrea Nahles, recently presented plans for specific labour market policy measures. The duo is proposing that the existing unemployment benefit be extended to include an additional component and that the eligibility criteria be relaxed. The idea of the new benefit Q (for qualification) is to grant registered recipients the right to participate in qualification programmes. It could double the benefit period – for younger jobseekers from one to two years and for those aged 58 and above from two to four years.
Topics: Labour market policy; Politics and elections; Social policy
load Pdf 
3 10.03.2017 Aktueller Kommentar
Arbeitslosengeld Q und die Krux mit der Gerechtigkeit
Abstract: „Zeit für mehr Gerechtigkeit“ heißt das Schlagwort, mit dem die SPD und ihr Spitzenkandidat Martin Schulz in den Wahlkampf ziehen. Für die Arbeitsmarktpolitik präsentierten der Kanzlerkandidat und Bundesarbeitsministerin Nahles kürzlich erste konkrete Pläne dazu. Sie wollen das Arbeitslosengeld I um eine neue Komponente erweitern sowie den Zugang zu den Lohnersatzleistungen erleichtern. Mit dem neuen Arbeitslosengeld Q sollen Bezieher/innen von Arbeitslosengeld I einen Rechtsanspruch auf Qualifizierung erhalten. Damit kann sich für jüngere Berechtigte die Bezugsdauer um bis zu 12 Monate und für ältere ab 58 sogar um 24 Monate auf zwei bzw. sogar vier Jahre verdoppeln. Um das Arbeitslosengeld für Personen mit unstetiger Erwerbstätigkeit besser zugänglich zu machen, soll zudem die so genannte Rahmenfrist verlängert werden. Unter 50-jährige Antragsteller, zum Beispiel, könnten demzufolge die erforderliche Mindestbeitragszeit von (in ihrem Fall) 12 Monaten innerhalb von drei statt bislang zwei Jahren vor Antragstellung erwerben.
Topics: Labour market policy; Politics and elections; Social policy
load Pdf 
4 09.03.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Growth and inflation leave ECB still unfazed
Abstract: At face value the pick-up of GDP growth at the end of 2016 (Q4: +0.4% qoq vs. +0.1% prev.) seems to fit with improving sentiment. However, given its composition we would argue that underlying growth was weaker than the headline suggests. We stick to our below consensus GDP forecast for 2017 (1.1%) and only make cosmetic changes in the details. We are raising our inflation forecast slightly overall for 2017, from 1.6% to 1.7%, compared with only 0.5% in 2016. We still expect core inflation to be only slightly above 1% in 2017. If the signs of global price increases are confirmed, then we could in fact see a more pronounced increase in core inflation, particularly if rising prices translate into second-round effects when wage negotiations are conducted in 2018. (Further articles: German industry, German election campaign)
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
load Pdf 1092k 
5 30.01.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: New SPD frontrunner unlikely to defeat Merkel
Abstract: 2016 GDP growth picked up further relative to the previous two years (1.9% vs. 1.7%). Growth was strongly tilted towards consumption thanks to several tailwinds (refugee crisis, low inflation, labour market strength), while slowing exports weighed on private equipment investment: With several tailwinds fading and a strong workday effect weighing, GDP growth looks set to slow to 1.1% in 2017. Recent sentiment indicators herald some upside risks for the current quarter. However, the 2.3 point drop in the expectations component of the January ifo index seems to corroborate our more cautious stance. In an unexpected turn, SPD party leader Gabriel announced that he would not run against Angela Merkel. Instead Martin Schulz, the former president of the European Parliament, will be the party’s frontrunner. Mr. Schulz’s unexpected nomination is likely to push the SPD’s campaign for the federal election on September 24 but unlikely to derail Merkel.
Topics: Business cycle; European issues; European policy issues; Germany; Globalisation; Intern. relations; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation
load Pdf 780k 
6 25.01.2017 Germany Monitor
Uncertainty is slowing capital expenditure
Abstract: In view of the pronounced economic and (geo)political uncertainties and the weak starting level, (private-sector) equipment investment in Germany is likely to decrease in 2017 despite a respectable level of capacity utilisation. The interplay of multiple factors is currently causing a high level of uncertainty: the potentially serious impact on Germany in the event of the uncertainties materialising, the continued high number of simultaneous uncertainties, the complexity of many capital expenditure decisions and the lack of confidence in politicians (and/or their ability to come up with solutions). We will present several uncertainty indicators based on news, surveys and financial markets data that provide a way of quantifying the uncertainty.
Topics: Brexit; Demographics; Digitalisation; Economic policy; Energy policy; European issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Globalisation; Intern. relations; International capital markets; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Provision for old age; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Trade
load Pdf 597k 
7 18.01.2017 Deutschland-Monitor
Unsicherheit bremst Investitionen aus
Abstract: Aufgrund der ausgeprägten wirtschaftlichen und (geo-)politischen Unsicherheit und des schwachen Startniveaus dürften die (privaten) Ausrüstungsinvestitionen in Deutschland 2017 sinken trotz insgesamt ordentlich ausgelasteter Kapazitäten der Unternehmen. Ein Zusammenspiel mehrerer Aspekte sorgt derzeit für das hohe Unsicherheitsniveau: die potenziell gravierenden Auswirkungen auf Deutschland bei Eintritt der Unsicherheiten, die anhaltend hohe Zahl gleichzeitiger Unsicherheiten, die Komplexität vieler Investitionsentscheidungen sowie der Mangel an Vertrauen in die (Lösungskompetenz der) Politik. Wir stellen eine Reihe von nachrichten-, umfrage- und finanzmarktbasierten Unsicherheitsindikatoren vor, die eine ansatzweise Quantifizierung der Unsicherheit erlauben, und geben einen Ausblick auf die unseres Erachtens wichtigsten Unsicherheiten.
Topics: Brexit; Demographics; Digitalisation; Economic growth; Economic policy; Energy policy; European issues; Germany; Global financial markets; Globalisation; Intern. relations; International capital markets; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Provision for old age; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Trade
load Pdf 920k 
8 28.10.2016 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Subdued industry outlook dampens wage growth
Abstract: German wage growth slowed in H1 2016 and there is a range of factors that are likely to also put a lid on the pick-up in 2017. The impact of labour shortage is limited by material mismatch between the qualifications of the unemployed and those sought by employers as well as substantial immigration flows. High real wage gains have pushed up unit labour costs and weighed on corporate profitability, which is further undermined by low productivity growth. Cautious wage agreements in 2016 on average stipulate only 2% wage increases in 2017. Despite a 4% increase in the statutory minimum wage, aggregate wages should increase by only around 2 ½%. According to our forecasts, next year could see the growth rate for industrial production in Germany drop to 0.5% in real terms. Regarding output in Germany’s large industrial sectors we do not expect major outliers. Also in this issue: “The View from Berlin. All lights on the debates about personalities and tactical gambits.”
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Electrical engineering; Exchange rates; Germany; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
load Pdf 2373k 
9 04.10.2016 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Difficult times for German savers
Abstract: The policy of low and negative interest rates has had a limited impact on the returns on household financial assets in Germany to date. The nominal total return has averaged 3.4% over the last four years. Even nominal returns on interest-bearing investments did not slip below 2% until 2015 because a large proportion of longer-dated and mostly higher-coupon investments dampened the effect of evaporating market returns. High and stable revaluation gains have also buttressed total returns over recent years. They have probably been enhanced in no small measure by the ECB’s Quantitative Easing programme. Interest income and revaluation effects are likely to be a greater burden in 2016 and 2017. The income return on other assets is also likely to drop on account of the financial market environment. The scope for further significant revaluation gains is likely to be limited given already very high valuations. In 2017 the real total return could even become negative (again).
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Financial market trends; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation
load Pdf 2046k 
10 02.09.2016 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Low returns, political discontent – Germans explore riskier options
Abstract: Against the backdrop of strong Q2 growth and the revision of historic data, we increase our GDP forecast for 2016 to 1.9% (from 1.7%). For 2017 we lower our growth forecast to 1.0% (from 1.3%). Muted wage growth will likely weigh on consumption growth and subdued exports as well as high global uncertainty might negatively impact equipment investments. Further topics in this issue: Fiscal balance, Current account surplus, Retail investors, German industry and View from Berlin.
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Electrical engineering; Food and beverages; Germany; Key issues - nicht mehr verwenden!; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Monetary policy; Other sectors; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities
load Pdf 2111k 
1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
 
 
Bundestagswahl 2017
Brexit
Interactive maps
Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main