Documentlist
Exchange rates

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1 28.03.2017 Germany
Exchange rates, short term
Topics: Exchange rates
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2 28.03.2017 Germany
Exchange rates, long term
Topics: Exchange rates
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3 28.03.2017 Angola
Angola: Exchange rates
Topics: Exchange rates
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4 27.03.2017 United States
Exchange Rates, long term
Topics: Exchange rates
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5 27.03.2017 United States
Exchange rates, short term
Topics: Exchange rates
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6 09.03.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Growth and inflation leave ECB still unfazed
Abstract: At face value the pick-up of GDP growth at the end of 2016 (Q4: +0.4% qoq vs. +0.1% prev.) seems to fit with improving sentiment. However, given its composition we would argue that underlying growth was weaker than the headline suggests. We stick to our below consensus GDP forecast for 2017 (1.1%) and only make cosmetic changes in the details. We are raising our inflation forecast slightly overall for 2017, from 1.6% to 1.7%, compared with only 0.5% in 2016. We still expect core inflation to be only slightly above 1% in 2017. If the signs of global price increases are confirmed, then we could in fact see a more pronounced increase in core inflation, particularly if rising prices translate into second-round effects when wage negotiations are conducted in 2018. (Further articles: German industry, German election campaign)
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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7 08.03.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Wachstum und Inflation dürften EZB noch kalt lassen
Abstract: Auf den ersten Blick scheint das anziehende BIP-Wachstum zum Jahresende 2016 (Q4: +0,4% gg. Vq.; zuvor: +0,1%) konsistent mit den angestiegenen Konjunkturindikatoren. Allerdings zeigt die Zusammensetzung des BIP-Wachstums eine eher schwächere zugrundeliegende Dynamik. Wir behalten deshalb unsere unter dem Konsens liegende BIP-Prognose von 1,1% für das Jahr 2017 bei. Unsere Inflationsprognose für 2017 heben wir insgesamt minimal an auf 1,7% von 1,6% nach nur 0,5% in 2016. Dabei erwarten wir die Kerninflation in 2017 weiter bei gut 1%. Sollten sich die Anzeichen für den globalen Preisauftrieb bestätigen, könnte die Kerninflation aber deutlicher zulegen, insbesondere wenn in 2018 anziehende Preise Zweitrundeneffekte bei den Lohnverhandlungen nach sich ziehen sollten. Wir erwarten weiterhin, dass die EZB erst im September Aussagen zum „Tapering“ treffen wird, die dann ab Januar 2018 umgesetzt werden. Von der Pressekonferenz erwarten wir Hinweise in Richtung eines langsamen und graduellen Übergangs zu einer weniger expansiven Geldpolitik.
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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8 21.12.2016 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Outlook 2017: Solid, despite diminished tailwinds
Abstract: German GDP growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2017 following considerable momentum over the last two years. We note the growth rate will almost half, to 1.1%, in 2017, but around half of this is due to a smaller number of working days. While the economy will likely have to do without a number of special factors that provided a boost to domestic demand in 2016, we believe that the underlying robust domestic economic growth path remains intact. Weak global trade and political uncertainty will dampen exports and investments. The ECB has in all but words indicated that tapering will begin in 2017. European interest rates are likely to remain at very low levels in 2017, at least at the short end.
Topics: Auto industry; Brexit; Business cycle; Commercial real estate; Construction industry; Economic growth; European issues; European policy issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Migration; Monetary policy; Other sectors; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Real estate; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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9 16.12.2016 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Ausblick 2017 - solide, trotz nachlassendem Rückenwind
Abstract: Das deutsche BIP-Wachstum dürfte 2017 nach der ausgeprägten Dynamik der zwei Vorjahre etwas nachlassen. Mit 1,1% könnte sich die Wachstumsrate 2017 zwar nahezu halbieren. Dies ist aber zur Hälfte der geringeren Zahl von Arbeitstagen geschuldet. Die Binnenkonjunktur bleibt dank robustem Konsum und Bau der Wachstumsanker der deutschen Wirtschaft. Die weltwirtschaftliche Dynamik dürfte 2017 zwar etwas zunehmen; die Nachfrage nach deutschen Exporten aber zurückhaltend bleiben. Die politische Unsicherheit vor allem in Europa und die Ungewissheit über den Ausblick für den globalen Freihandel sollten die Ausrüstungsinvestitionen in einem Umfeld moderater Nachfrage dämpfen. Die EZB hat den Einstieg in den Ausstieg aus ihrem Anleihekaufprogramm angekündigt. Das europäische Zinsniveau dürfte aber 2017 zumindest am kurzen Ende auf Niedrigstniveau verharren.
Topics: Auto industry; Brexit; Business cycle; Commercial real estate; Construction industry; Economic growth; European issues; European policy issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Labour market; Migration; Monetary policy; Other sectors; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Real estate; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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10 28.10.2016 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Subdued industry outlook dampens wage growth
Abstract: German wage growth slowed in H1 2016 and there is a range of factors that are likely to also put a lid on the pick-up in 2017. The impact of labour shortage is limited by material mismatch between the qualifications of the unemployed and those sought by employers as well as substantial immigration flows. High real wage gains have pushed up unit labour costs and weighed on corporate profitability, which is further undermined by low productivity growth. Cautious wage agreements in 2016 on average stipulate only 2% wage increases in 2017. Despite a 4% increase in the statutory minimum wage, aggregate wages should increase by only around 2 ½%. According to our forecasts, next year could see the growth rate for industrial production in Germany drop to 0.5% in real terms. Regarding output in Germany’s large industrial sectors we do not expect major outliers. Also in this issue: “The View from Berlin. All lights on the debates about personalities and tactical gambits.”
Topics: Auto industry; Business cycle; Chemicals industry; Economic growth; Economic policy; Electrical engineering; Exchange rates; Germany; Labour market; Labour market policy; Macroeconomics; Mechanical engineering; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Steel industry; Trade
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