Documentlist
Economic policy

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1 21.08.2017 Germany Monitor
Time to fully recognise the potential of digital start-ups
Abstract: In Germany, the number of successful technology start-ups with a novel product is lagging behind in an international context. Considering the key role of start-ups in innovative entrepreneurship and their contribution to the real economy, reasons and key points of action to increase start-up activity should be identified. Excessive red-tape is a major hindrance and mainstream political parties are aiming to reduce excessive bureaucracy in start-up creation. Improved access to bank lending and venture capital investments are necessary to broaden post-launch funding alternatives. Brexit could be boon especially for the start-up scene in Berlin if relocation formalities are lowered. Enhancing a “can-do” culture and taking entrepreneurship among immigrants into account in policymaking have paramount importance, too. The Nordic start-up ecosystem provides important takeaways to boost start-up creation.
Topics: Digitalisation; Economic policy; Germany; Global financial markets; International financial system; Politics and elections; SMEs; Technology and innovation
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2 21.08.2017 Deutschland-Monitor
Staat oder Private, Umverteilung oder Wachstum: Wer gewinnt beim Steuerpuzzle der Parteien?
Abstract: Seit 2010 ist das Steueraufkommen in Deutschland um ein Drittel auf EUR 706 Mrd. gestiegen. Wenn Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich mit einer Aufkommensquote von 22,9% des BIP gleichwohl als Niedrigsteuerland erscheint, trügt das Bild, weil der deutsche Sozialstaat weitgehend über zusätzliche Abgaben finanziert wird. Bei der Gesamtbelastung liegt Deutschland über dem OECD-Durchschnitt und die Steuerstruktur ist ungünstig. Es erscheint sinnvoll, v.a. die steile Progression der Einkommensteuer bei geringeren und mittleren Einkommen abzuflachen. Mit Reformvorschlägen für die Einkommensteuer werben die Parteien um die Medianwähler und die eigene Klientel. Unter dem Strich ergeben sich unterschiedliche Entlastungseffekte.
Topics: Economic policy; Germany; Politics and elections; Social policy; Tax policy
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3 14.08.2017 Articles: Macroeconomics
Budgetary relief and debt dampening effect from the low interest rate environment: Not only a German phenomenon!
Abstract: Yields on German government debt securities have fallen rapidly in the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis and provided a considerable relief to the public sector budget. At the moment, federal government securities have negative yields for maturities up to 6 years and the yield on 10 year German Bunds stands at just roughly 0.4%.
Topics: Economic policy; Fiscal policy; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends
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4 14.08.2017 Artikel: Makroökonomie
Haushaltsentlastende und schuldendämpfende Effekte des Niedrigzinsniveaus: Nicht nur ein deutsches Phänomen!
Abstract: Im Zuge der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise sind die Zinsen auf deutsche Staatsanleihen rapide gesunken und haben den Staatshaushalt seither in erheblichem Umfang entlastet. Aktuell rentieren die Schuldtitel des Bundes im Laufzeitenbereich von bis zu 6 Jahren noch immer im negativen Bereich und 10-jährige Bundesanleihen werfen lediglich eine Rendite von rund 0,4% ab.
Topics: Economic policy; Fiscal policy; Macroeconomics; Real econ. trends
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5 09.08.2017 Articles: European Policy Research
German election: stability-led complacency
Abstract: The German election will take place on September 24. Polls indicate a fourth term for Chancellor Merkel but it remains to be seen with which coalition she will govern. The booming economy has fostered cross-party complacency and prevented the necessary debate about how to ensure Germany’s future prosperity.
Topics: Economic policy; European policy issues; Germany; Politics and elections
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6 08.08.2017 Germany Monitor
German defence policy: Towards a more integrated security framework
Abstract: Defence policy and defence expenditures have moved into the light of public attention ahead of September parliamentary elections, fuelled by US criticism of Europe’s NATO spending, the experience of the refugee crisis but also regained momentum for European integration. While NATO membership and EU defence integration is supported by the German public, a majority rejects an increase in the military budget. To reach NATO’s 2% of GDP target by 2024, defence expenditures would have to more than double within seven years. Mainstream parties agree that a more holistic security framework is required but they are divided on the details, in particular when it comes to the question on how much to spend for it.
Topics: Economic policy; European issues; European policy issues; Germany; Other sectors; Politics and elections; Sectors / commodities
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7 08.08.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Cyclical boom no reason for fiscal complacency
Abstract: Forecast for German Q2 GDP lifted to 0.8%. Following recent strong soft and hard data, we have lifted our forecast for Q2 GDP from 0.6% qoq to 0.8% (Q1 0.6%). Private consumption should remain the major driver behind above potential growth. In H2 the recent strong appreciation of the EUR should leave its mark. Still, in July ifo export expectations stood just 1 point below their all-time high. This could be related to the stronger than expected recovery within the Eurozone as well as stronger demand from China. (Also in this issue: private consumption, Germany's fiscal outlook, the view from Berlin)
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Fiscal policy; Germany; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends
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8 08.08.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Konjunkturboom kein Grund für fiskalische Selbstzufriedenheit
Abstract: Prognose für das deutsche BIP-Wachstum in Q2 auf 0,8% angehoben. Angesichts zuletzt starker Vertrauensindikatoren und monatlicher Daten haben wir unsere BIP-Prognose für Q2 von 0,6% auf 0,8% (gegenüber Vor-quartal) angehoben (Q1 0,6%). Der private Verbrauch dürfte der Haupttreiber für das deutlich über Potenzial liegende Wachstum sein. Im zweiten Halbjahr sollte die zuletzt deutliche Euro-Aufwertung spürbar werden. Andererseits haben die ifo Exporterwartungen in den letzten Monaten deutlich zugelegt und lagen im Juli nur noch um einen Punkt unter ihrem Allzeithoch. Dies könnte auf die stärker als erwartet wachsende Konjunktur im Rest der Eurozone sowie auf eine Belebung der Nachfrage aus China zurückzuführen sein. (Weitere Themen dieser Ausgabe: Privater Konsum, Deutscher Fiskalausblick, EZB-Politik)
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Fiscal policy; Germany; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends
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9 04.08.2017 Talking Point
German auto industry: Further measures are necessary to overcome the diesel crisis
Abstract: The results of the “diesel summit” are an interim solution at best. In view of the current negative sentiment towards diesel engines, diesel cars will stand a chance in the medium to long term only if the auto industry credibly demonstrates that it can keep emissions below the legal thresholds in real driving situations and in (almost) all weather conditions. If carmakers do not succeed in this endeavour, customers will increasingly turn away from diesel cars, as they fear excessive residual value losses or stricter regulation.
Topics: Auto industry; Economic policy; Environmental policy; Germany; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Transport; Transport policy
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10 03.08.2017 Germany Monitor
Packed European agenda for the next government: Numerous challenges, no (easy) answers
Abstract: The benign economic and public environment allows to fundamentally address shortcomings of the E(M)U. The next German government’s term is faced with numerous challenges ranging from Brexit and its impact on the next EU Budget to migration and the upgrade of the euro area. A revitalised relation with France provides the opportunity for substantive steps to further stabilise the euro area albeit Germany and France need to find common ground on many issues and seek the support of EU partners. European politics is still less of a topic for the German electorate not least as mainstream parties are all various shades of pro-European. However, the next government’s party composition is likely to matter for both speed and scope of changes on European level.
Topics: Brexit; Economic policy; EMU; European issues; European policy issues; Macroeconomics; Migration; Politics and elections
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