Economic growth

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1 29.06.2017 Monitor Unternehmensfinanzierung
Deutsches Kreditgeschäft etwas weniger dynamisch als die Konjunktur in Q1 2017
Abstract: Lending to German corporates and self-employed increased in Q1 more than in any other quarter since the financial crisis (1.3% qoq / 2.2% yoy). However, momentum with the manufacturing sector remained subdued, while volumes with the construction industry and retail & wholesale trade surged. Retail banks and foreign banks performed strongly once more. Corporate bond issuance took a breather, but commercial paper and leasing delivered excellent results. The German economy expanded robustly also in Q1 (GDP +0.6% qoq), surprisingly driven mainly by net exports. However, domestic demand also continued its upward trend, particularly private consumption which expanded the 13th quarter in a row (longest continuous rise since reunification). The GDP forecast for the full year was raised to 1.6%, for 2018 there may be risks of overheating (available only in German).
Topics: Banking; Business cycle; Economic growth; Financial market trends; Germany; International capital markets; International financial system; Macroeconomics
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2 06.06.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Strong economy supports Merkel’s re-election chances
Abstract: After Q1’s sturdy 0.6% qoq GDP growth, soft indicators do not signal any moderation of the growth momentum. Employment in 2017 so far, has been expanding at similar clip as in 2016, making our 1% consumption forecast for 2017 quite conservative. Exports have rebounded in the winter half – in line with global trade. The growth momentum of global trade seems to have peaked; therefore, we remain cautious, predicting 3.6% German export growth in 2017 after 2.7% last year. In combination with lingering geo-political uncertainty this will weigh on investment spending, where a utilization rate of 2pp above its long-term average suggests a still limited necessity to invest. Following Q1 GDP growth of 0.6% we have revised our 2017 GDP forecast to 1.3% (1.1%). Latest confidence surveys, however, hint at further upside potential and increasing risks of over-heating for 2018. Political observers in Germany have recently been focusing on the SPD’s ups and downs in the polls and the CDU’s reverse showing while smaller parties are fighting for public attention. From the present point of view (polls) a Jamaica coalition is the sole arithmetically feasible alternative to a renewed grand coalition after the September election. (Further topics: German industrial output – forecast for 2017; Corporate funding in Q1 – lending)
Topics: Auto industry; Banking; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Global financial markets; International capital markets; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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3 26.05.2017 Talking Point
Fewer crisis spots on the euro-area housing market
Abstract: The massive overvaluations on the euro-area market for residential real estate (as measured by the price-income ratios for 2007 and 2008) are a thing of the past. Currently, house prices are excessive only in several smaller countries. However, this situation is likely to change towards the end of the decade if the dynamic uptrend in German house prices continues as expected.
Topics: Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic trends; Germany; Prices, inflation; Residential real estate
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4 22.05.2017 Japan
Business cycle, economic growth and private fixed capital formation
Topics: Economic growth
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5 22.05.2017 Aktueller Kommentar
Wenige Krisenherde im Häusermarkt der Eurozone
Abstract: Der Wohnimmobilienmarkt der Eurozone hat seine massiven Überbewertungen, gemessen am Verhältnis Preise zu Einkommen der Jahre 2007 und 2008, abgebaut. Aktuell liegen nur noch in wenigen kleineren Ländern Überbewertungen vor. Dies dürfte sich gegen Ende des Jahrzehntes wieder ändern, wenn die Hauspreisdynamik in Deutschland wie erwartet hoch bleibt.
Topics: Construction industry; Economic growth; Economic trends; Germany; Prices, inflation; Residential real estate
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6 08.05.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Positive Signale
Abstract: Im Jahr 2016 war das Wachstum des Welthandels mit +1,3% schwach und in manchen Monaten sogar rückläufig. Im Winterhalbjahr aber nahm der Welthandel mit einem Plus von rund 3% gegenüber den Vorjahresmonaten wieder Fahrt auf. Unser Modell prognostiziert allerdings nur ein moderates Wachstum von etwas mehr als 2% im Jahr 2017 und rund 3% im Jahr 2018. Aufgrund der aktuellen Wachstumsdynamik und struktureller Unsicherheiten beschreibt dies wohl eher den unteren Rand des Prognosekorridors. Die insgesamt vorsichtige Prognose steht allerdings auch mit den zunehmenden globalen Handelsrestriktionen im Einklang, denn trotz gegenteiliger Beteuerungen auf G20-Gipfeln steigt die Zahl der Handelshemmnisse an. (Weitere Beiträge in dieser Ausgabe: Deutsches Beschäftigungswunder; EZB-Geldpolitik)
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Exchange rates; Germany; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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7 05.05.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Positive signs
Abstract: Growth in global trade almost stagnated at just 1.3% in 2016, and in some months was even negative. During winter, global trade picked up again, rising by around 3% compared to the same period a year earlier. Given the positive sentiment prevailing across the globe, this rebound could well continue. However, this trend is not yet being fully reflected in other hard economic indicators, usually highly correlated with global trade, and sentiment may therefore overstate the actual trend a little. Still, our simple model of world trade, which suggests moderate growth of just over 2% in 2017 and around 3% in 2018 might represent the lower limit of the forecast range. However, compared to previous cycles the upturn could remain weak, not least because of the global trade restrictions that have been progressively ratcheted up since 2008. (Further articles: Germany’s employment miracle, German election campaign not in full swing, yet)
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; Exchange rates; Germany; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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8 07.04.2017 Aktuelle Themen
Ausblick Deutschland: Öffentliche Investitionen und Wohnungsbau ziehen an
Abstract: Öffentliche Investitionen: Mehr in der Pipeline. In der internationalen Debatte werden öffentliche Investitionen vielfach als nützlicher Hebel für eine höhere Binnennachfrage gesehen. Trotz internationaler Kritik und politischer Willensbekundung sind die öffentlichen Investitionen in Deutschland in den letzten zwei Jahren nur moderat gestiegen. In den kommenden Jahren dürften die öffentlichen Investitionen jedoch spürbar zulegen.
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Sectors / commodities; Socio-econ. trends; Trade
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9 06.04.2017 Current Issues
Focus Germany: Investment: Public, residential – gradually picking up
Abstract: In international debate public investment is often regarded as a useful lever for promoting higher domestic demand. Despite international criticism and political declarations of intent, public investment in Germany has only increased moderately over the past two years and has remained average, at best, on an international scale. In the coming years, however, public investment is expected to grow significantly. The current investment plans for the federal budget are 40% higher than those adopted in 2013. Public contracts for the construction industry in 2016 were between 15 and 27% above the average of the previous 10 years. The excellent state of the public finances at the various government levels also supports the prospect of increasing investment growth. However, severe capacity shortages in the construction industry are likely to mean that the high demand for investment will not quickly lead to an increase in construction activity. (Further articles: German housing market, Corporate bond boom in Germany, Result of the Saarland election)
Topics: Brexit; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Globalisation; Labour market; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Sectors / commodities; Trade
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10 04.04.2017 Marktausblick Baufinanzierung
Deutschland-Monitor Baufinanzierung Q2/2017
Abstract: Aktuell liegen die 10-jährigen Bundesanleihen bei 0,3%. Deutlich über den Tiefstständen von -0,189% Mitte 2016. Daher stiegen auch die deutschen Hypothekenzinsen jüngst leicht auf 1,6% an (Nov 2016 1,4%). Die Erwartung einer höheren US-Wirtschaftsdynamik nach der Präsidentschaftswahl ließ die Kapitalmarktzinsen kräftig steigen. Da zudem die EZB mit dem Ausstieg aus der ultralockeren Geldpolitik in den kommenden Monaten beginnen dürfte, könnten die Kapitalmarktzinsen weiter steigen. Deshalb erwarten wir in den kommenden Monaten leicht steigende Hypothekenzinsen. Ende 2017: 1,7% und Ende 2018: 1,9%. Die Zahl der fertiggestellten Wohnungen könnte im Jahr 2017 im aktuellen Zyklus erstmals auf 300.000 ansteigen. Ausgehend von einem Bedarf von mindestens 350.000 Wohnungen pro Jahr würde damit der Nachfrageüberhang trotzdem ansteigen.
Topics: Banking; Economic growth; Germany; International capital markets; Macroeconomics; Prices, inflation; Real estate; Residential real estate
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