Chart archive

210 (41-50)
Date
Title
Link
No.
Periodical
Author
Region
Country
Product Name
Teaser
18.10.2016
42
Region:
Product Name:
The political calendar is filled with risk events over the next year. The US elections in a few weeks are likely to yield a Clinton win and continued gridlock. Spain continues without a government, but an end to the impasse could be nearing. In Italy, however, the risk is rising that December’s Senate referendum will be rejected. In this case, new elections, though unlikely, cannot be ruled out. Anti-EU parties might also make gains in next year’s German and French elections. In the UK, the government’s hard-line rhetoric and an uncompromising EU stance are paving the way for a hard Brexit. [more]
04.10.2016
43
Region:
Product Name:
The US election will see a polarised electorate choose between two sharply contrasting worldviews. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton is likely to follow a similar policy agenda to that of the Obama administration, while Republican candidate Donald Trump has promised radical change. Clinton remains favoured to win, but a Trump victory cannot be excluded. [more]
07.09.2016
48
Region:
Product Name:
After kicking off with the surprise Brexit vote, the summer proved unexpectedly quiet. Risk assets enjoyed a strong rally, as investors recognised that the Brexit negotiation process would be drawn out and that the initial fallout was less severe than feared. But amid this resiliency, there is a sense that markets are waiting impatiently as various macro risks loom on the horizon. [more]
19.07.2016
50
Region:
Product Name:
Over the past month markets have digested the fallout from the surprise Brexit vote. After global equities initially experienced a steep selloff and sovereign bond yields plunged to record lows, markets staged a strong comeback in recent weeks.While the initial news about Brexit has been absorbed reasonably well, uncertainty will linger. It will be months before formal negotiations start and several years until we know the details of the new EU-UK relationship. In the meantime, there are a number of potential contagion channels. Most notably, pronounced stress in European banks could weigh on credit creation and derail eurozone growth.Against this backdrop, our global growth outlook has been downgraded since earlier this year. Brexit has led to only modest downward revisions outside the UK and eurozone, but it has added to downside risks. Despite better data recently, US growth is expected to remain modest and China should continue to slow gradually.Given uninspiring global growth prospects, three of the major four developed market central banks – ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan – are expected to ease in the coming months. On the other hand, the Fed should renew its divergence from other central banks by raising rates later this year.The magnitude of the recent rally has left us cautious on equities, amid an uncertain outlook for the key drivers of the more positive risk tone. After recent fluctuations, there is some scope for US rates to move lower into year-end, while European rates should remain near current levels. In FX, we remain bullish on the dollar and the yen, and expect further weakness in the euro, yuan and especially sterling.David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief EconomistKey pages this month:p11: Prospects for a workable compromise for UK-EUp13: Potential for contagion from European political riskp15: Risks from EU bank stress p23: Central bank outlookp28: Drivers of recent market rally [more]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10