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The start of the year was brutal, with some markets pricing recessionary scenarios. This partly reflected investors’ increasing perception that central banks have run out of ammunition to spur growth and inflation.Risk assets have in the last month staged a strong rally, whipping out a large part of the year’s steep losses. The turn in risk sentiment was supported by constructive news on a number of fronts. The sharp recovery in oil prices, albeit fragile, played an important role. Also, while overall growth momentum in the US has slowed, macro data improved, helping reduce recession fears. Macro data in China are mixed but support our view of an economy slowing gradually, not sharply – and commentary from monetary authorities has reduced the likelihood of a sharp yuan devaluation.The March ECB meeting was the main event in recent weeks. Policy easing exceeded expectations where it was most needed, namely removing concerns over bank funding and thus reducing downside risk for eurozone growth. Overall, the introduction of the ECB as a buyer of corporate bonds is positive for credit, especially European IG, as well as equities. On the flipside, the ECB’s signal that further rate cuts are less likely limits euro weakness in the short-term.As for the Fed, no action is expected at the 16-March meeting and instead focus will be on what is said about future policy moves: that further hikes are likely this year.The global outlook remains broadly unchanged, with growth better than feared but still set to fall to the slowest pace post-crisis this year. Momentum has slowed both in the US and the eurozone, while in China data have been mixed but consistent with a gradual growth slowdown, not a hard landing. The growth outlook for EM remains weak overall.The risk rally has further to go, but risk sentiment will remain vulnerable to negative developments on a number of fronts. A hawkish turn by the Fed could set off a re-pricing of global rates and reverse the recent we [more]
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TheHouseView team has launched a new publication: TheHouseView Snapshot.Snapshot provides a short summary of Deutsche Bank Research's views on global macro, monetary policy and markets, as well as some of the key themes driving them.In just two pages.Snapshot does not replace TheHouseView monthly report. Instead, think of Snapshot as a "cheat sheet" of Research's main views‎. You can download Snapshot at any time from TheHouseView website at first edition discusses our global outlook, with 2016 set to see the slowest pace of global growth since the crisis. The report also summarises the policy expectations for the upcoming ECB and Fed meetings in March, as well as the views on China's FX policy, Brexit, European Financials and other topical themes. You will also find the summary views on the different asset classes ‎ and the main macro and markets forecasts. [more]
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The year continues to be bruising for risk assets and recent attempts at stabilisation have been unsuccessful. After a mild rebound, equities and US credit spreads are again close to their year’s worst levels.In addition to the initial concerns about China and energy, two new issues further weigh on risk sentiment: the slowdown in US growth momentum and the tightening of financial conditions especially in European financial credit.Macro data in the US have been weaker than expected and have raised questions about the sustainability of the recovery. Consumer spending and the services sector, which had been the drivers of growth, have decelerated. Fundamentals there still look sound, but weakness may persist and we have revised our below consensus growth forecasts further down. The Fed turned more dovish in response to the slower momentum and market volatility, and we no longer expect a rate rise in March. Indeed, at this stage it is difficult to see the Fed hiking more than once this year. [more]