Focus topic Germany

Focus topic: GermanyGermany has recovered well from the global financial and economic crisis. Achieving sustainable growth, however, will require further improvements to the macroeconomic framework. This is a job for policymakers, businesspeople and the public alike. DB Research’s contribution will be to analyse the broad spectrum of issues, discussing possible solutions as well as the economic and political outlook. These range from assessments of economic-policy decisions and analyses of cyclical activity and sector trends right through to the effects of international developments on Germany as a business location.

1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
Date
Title
Size
21.08.2017
Time to fully recognise the potential of digital start-ups
Abstract: In Germany, the number of successful technology start-ups with a novel product is lagging behind in an international context. Considering the key role of start-ups in innovative entrepreneurship and their contribution to the real economy, reasons and key points of action to increase start-up activity should be identified. Excessive red-tape is a major hindrance and mainstream political parties are aiming to reduce excessive bureaucracy in start-up creation. Improved access to bank lending and venture capital investments are necessary to broaden post-launch funding alternatives. Brexit could be boon especially for the start-up scene in Berlin if relocation formalities are lowered. Enhancing a “can-do” culture and taking entrepreneurship among immigrants into account in policymaking have paramount importance, too. The Nordic start-up ecosystem provides important takeaways to boost start-up creation.
Topics: Digitalisation; Economic policy; Germany; Global financial markets; International financial system; Politics and elections; SMEs; Technology and innovation
load Pdf 99k 
09.08.2017
German election: stability-led complacency
Abstract: The German election will take place on September 24. Polls indicate a fourth term for Chancellor Merkel but it remains to be seen with which coalition she will govern. The booming economy has fostered cross-party complacency and prevented the necessary debate about how to ensure Germany’s future prosperity.
Topics: Economic policy; European policy issues; Germany; Politics and elections
load Pdf 279k 
08.08.2017
German defence policy: Towards a more integrated security framework
Abstract: Defence policy and defence expenditures have moved into the light of public attention ahead of September parliamentary elections, fuelled by US criticism of Europe’s NATO spending, the experience of the refugee crisis but also regained momentum for European integration. While NATO membership and EU defence integration is supported by the German public, a majority rejects an increase in the military budget. To reach NATO’s 2% of GDP target by 2024, defence expenditures would have to more than double within seven years. Mainstream parties agree that a more holistic security framework is required but they are divided on the details, in particular when it comes to the question on how much to spend for it.
Topics: Economic policy; European issues; European policy issues; Germany; Other sectors; Politics and elections; Sectors / commodities
load Pdf 544k 
08.08.2017
Focus Germany: Cyclical boom no reason for fiscal complacency
Abstract: Forecast for German Q2 GDP lifted to 0.8%. Following recent strong soft and hard data, we have lifted our forecast for Q2 GDP from 0.6% qoq to 0.8% (Q1 0.6%). Private consumption should remain the major driver behind above potential growth. In H2 the recent strong appreciation of the EUR should leave its mark. Still, in July ifo export expectations stood just 1 point below their all-time high. This could be related to the stronger than expected recovery within the Eurozone as well as stronger demand from China. (Also in this issue: private consumption, Germany's fiscal outlook, the view from Berlin)
Topics: Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Fiscal policy; Germany; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends
load Pdf 2240k 
04.08.2017
German auto industry: Further measures are necessary to overcome the diesel crisis
Abstract: The results of the “diesel summit” are an interim solution at best. In view of the current negative sentiment towards diesel engines, diesel cars will stand a chance in the medium to long term only if the auto industry credibly demonstrates that it can keep emissions below the legal thresholds in real driving situations and in (almost) all weather conditions. If carmakers do not succeed in this endeavour, customers will increasingly turn away from diesel cars, as they fear excessive residual value losses or stricter regulation.
Topics: Auto industry; Economic policy; Environmental policy; Germany; Sectors / commodities; Sustainability; Transport; Transport policy
load Pdf 
18.07.2017
Parties not focusing enough on sustainability
Abstract: The debate over welfare policy in Germany appears to be paradoxical. Albeit steadily rising social spending, some critics believe that there is a social imbalance. But social security continues to have a positive impact while the welfare system is benefiting from the positive economic development. A further expansion of the welfare state is in the cards given not only the demographic trend but also the parties’ proposals in the current election campaigns. Sustainability of the welfare system is playing second fiddle only despite the fact that already taxpayers are burdened with avoidable costs.
Topics: Demographics; Economic policy; Germany; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Provision for old age; Social policy
load Pdf 291k 
10.07.2017
Robotics and automation outperform, backed by “Industry 4.0”
Abstract: The German mechanical engineering sector recently tripled its growth forecast for 2017, from 1% to 3% (both in real terms). Robotics and automation is an important growth driver; this sub-segment is likely to increase output by 7%, i.e. double the rate of the segment as a whole. The mega issue “Industry 4.0” plays a key role for this development. As this trend is gaining importance both in Germany and around the world, the medium-term outlook for the sub-segment remains excellent as well.
Topics: Germany; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation
load Pdf 
07.07.2017
Focus Germany: Overheating risks are looming
Abstract: The German economy is likely to have maintained its rapid growth rate in the second quarter. Consumer spending, in particular, has been stronger than expected thanks to the recent fall in oil prices and the continuing significant rise in employment levels. We have revised our GDP forecast for the whole year upwards to 1.6% (1.3%) which is equivalent to a calendar-adjusted rate of 2%. With an expected increase of 1.7% in 2018, German GDP is again likely to exceed the trend growth rate of around 1.25% – for the fifth successive year – and the positive output gap should widen to over two percentage points. The tight labour market could lead to increases in pay settlements of more than 3% during the round of collective pay bargaining (public sector, construction and metals) set to take place in early 2018, especially as these deals that are due to expire were originally negotiated some time ago, which signals some catch-up potential. Against the backdrop of additional fiscal stimuli after the Bundestag election, and monetary policy remaining extremely relaxed, the risk of overheating, at least in parts of the German economy, is increasing. However, the rate of (consumer price) inflation over the coming two years should remain below 2%, especially as we are not anticipating a depreciation of the euro against the US dollar. (Further topics: German house prices; The View from Berlin)
Topics: Business cycle; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Prices, inflation; Real econ. trends
load Pdf 780k 
03.07.2017
The digital car: More revenue, more competition, more cooperation
Abstract: The traditional automobile industry and companies that, in the past, had no involvement in the sector, are working hard to create software solutions, driver assistance systems and other technologies that will make networked, autonomous, traffic jam and accident-free driving possible. That means the “digital car” in its ideal form is no longer a utopian vision for the future, but is instead gradually taking shape. However, the path to the digital car will be more of an evolution than a revolution. That is the result of factors on both the supply and demand side. They include the considerable development times in the industry and the longevity of its products, cars. Consumer preferences, which have been shaped over decades, are also unlikely to change over night. It will take several decades for digital cars to make up a significant proportion of cars on the road – that is unlikely to happen before 2040.
Topics: Auto industry; Digitalisation; Electrical engineering; Germany; Information technology; Innovation; Internet; Sectors / commodities; Technology and innovation; Telecommunication; Transport
load Pdf 445k 
06.06.2017
Focus Germany: Strong economy supports Merkel’s re-election chances
Abstract: After Q1’s sturdy 0.6% qoq GDP growth, soft indicators do not signal any moderation of the growth momentum. Employment in 2017 so far, has been expanding at similar clip as in 2016, making our 1% consumption forecast for 2017 quite conservative. Exports have rebounded in the winter half – in line with global trade. The growth momentum of global trade seems to have peaked; therefore, we remain cautious, predicting 3.6% German export growth in 2017 after 2.7% last year. In combination with lingering geo-political uncertainty this will weigh on investment spending, where a utilization rate of 2pp above its long-term average suggests a still limited necessity to invest. Following Q1 GDP growth of 0.6% we have revised our 2017 GDP forecast to 1.3% (1.1%). Latest confidence surveys, however, hint at further upside potential and increasing risks of over-heating for 2018. Political observers in Germany have recently been focusing on the SPD’s ups and downs in the polls and the CDU’s reverse showing while smaller parties are fighting for public attention. From the present point of view (polls) a Jamaica coalition is the sole arithmetically feasible alternative to a renewed grand coalition after the September election. (Further topics: German industrial output – forecast for 2017; Corporate funding in Q1 – lending)
Topics: Auto industry; Banking; Business cycle; Economic growth; Economic policy; European issues; Exchange rates; Germany; Global financial markets; International capital markets; Macroeconomics; Politics and elections; Prices, inflation; Sectors / commodities; Trade
load Pdf 1439k 
1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5 · 6 · 7 · 8 · 9 · 10previous Page - vorherige Seitenext Page - naechste Seite
 
 
Interactive map
Copyright © 2017 Deutsche Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main